Thursday, August 2, 2018

Hot Heatwave News 2

August 2018

1st August - After the lull at the end of July, the heat is set to ramp up again. I hope they’re overestimating temperatures, but probably aren’t. Though last Sunday’s rain helped, we need a lot more of it to green the grass again and stave off farmers’ worries about crops. It’s not good news, in Britain or further afield. We’ll see what this winter’s like, but I really do worry the climate’s so buggered, that it’s gone over a tipping point and sometime soon, when the present blocked pattern will become a permanent feature, meaning water resources won’t recharge in winter and every summer will be at least as hot and dry as this one has been. That’s not a new fear, but I now fear it this happening in my lifetime, maybe even the next few years, as opposed to well after my time, when at least I won’t be here to grieve about it all. For now, the EA are revising abstraction limits to groundwater and rivers to stave off a farming crisis / food shortage. Heaven help us if it persists into next year with hard no deal Brexit food price hikes on top. The EA etc have these limits to prevent environmental damage to rivers and wildlife, but when it comes to the crunch, all that gets torn up. In Iberia, meanwhile, it’s set to get scary. They say records from the record heatwave of 2003 could be broken, with highs in the high 40s celcius.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/01/uk-farmers-allowed-to-take-more-water-from-rivers-as-heatwave-continues

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2018/aug/01/the-heat-is-on-record-48c-temperature-on-the-way-for-spain-and-portugal

Met. Office - UK July stats (31st July) 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/july-2018-statistics

Hot Heatwave News 1

Hot heatwave news daily, through June, July and on into August. The turnaround in weather and water since the early spring is unbelievable. Despite a brief lull and the wet Sunday at the end of July, real worries about drought entering August. Not just in the UK, but Ireland, Scandinavia and yet again continental Europe. It's coming from a particularly persistent, blocked weather pattern, with high pressure over these areas for much of June and July and weak jetstream running further north than usual. The heatwave further aggravated by drying soils, so no evaporative cooling. Comparisons in Britain and Europe with the hot summers of 1976 and 2003. The particularly disturbing thing is the heatwave is planet-wide; the jetstream weak and slow moving all around the northern hemisphere, making for blocked weather over Siberia; 30C+ north of the Arctic Circle in Finland. Heatwave in Scandinavia, Iberia, Canada, Japan. In Japan, too, exceptionally intense rainfall bringing flooding. Wildfire in NW England, Sweden, California. Disturbing again is that this doesn't look as if it will be a one-off. Not if anthropogenic climate change predictions are to be believed, which they should be. It's crazy and scary that lots of people, including some very powerful people say they shouldn't be. The carbon dioxide shortage in June affecting food and drink industries in Britain and Europe was ironic, given that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is now above 400ppm and rising. When I started secondary school and learned about the constituents of the Earth's atmosphere in the early 1980s, it was about 320ppm. The mean global temperature is already 1C above that at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and the rate of increase is accelerating. If it's not global heating that's driving the extremes of heat, drought and intense rainfall seen in globally since the beginning of this century, I don't know what else is. Somthing must be up, or down.

News / Links June - July 2018



Guardian 13/07/18 - global heatwave / record temperatures in many areas. Climate change inducing more blocking weather, prolonging episodes of heat and drought. La Nina this year. Should be cooler, not continuation of upward trend seen this decade.






The 2018 Great Britain and Ireland heat wave is a period of unusually hot weather that has led to record-breaking temperatures in the UK and Ireland,[1] and has helped to cause widespread drought, hosepipe banscrop failures, and the 2018 United Kingdom wildfires.
A heat wave was officially declared on 23 June, with even Scotland and Northern Ireland recording temperatures above 30 °C (86 °F) for the first time since the July 2013 heat wave, something which is rare in these places, but more common in England and Wales.[2]
The British Isles are in the middle of a strong warm anticyclone inside a strong northward meander of the jet stream. It is part of a larger heat wave affecting the northern hemisphere, caused by the jet stream being farther north than usual, trapping hot air above North America, Europe, and Asia, and blocking low-pressure systems that would bring cooler air and rainfall.
t is part of a heat wave spanning the Northern Hemisphere, which has seen the hottest night ever recorded on Earth in Oman, where the lowest temperature was 42.6 °C (108.7 °F),[11] and the deaths of at least 33 people in Canada.[10]

Temperature
In Wales and Northern Ireland, June 2018 was the warmest June ever recorded and in England and Scotland, June 2018 ranks within the top 5 warmest on record.[23] In the Central England region, the CET is a long running temperature series, with records back to 1659. 2018's temperature was 16.1 °C (61.0 °F), meaning it ranks as the 18th warmest June recorded in England in the past 359 years, also being the warmest since 1976.[24]


Much of northern Europe has been experiencing a heatwave - notable for its intensity and duration. It's caused by "atmosphere blocking". Can we predict when these blocks will come and how long they will last? Adam Rutherford talks to Jana Sillmann, director of the Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, Norway, author of a new study that has modelled 40 years' worth of heatwaves and blocking, and looked to the end of the century in attempting to predict blocking patterns as the climate changes.

From <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b90pvt>



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-44885493 - satellite image of England and Wales May and mid-July

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44767497 - hidden henges etc revealed


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-44886776 - Part of L&L Canal shut for 55 miles in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-44869566 - oaf accidentally drains K&A Canal, 18th July

Summer rainfall so far, UK: Scotland 30%; northern England 18%; NI 24%; Wales 10%; southern England 6%.


FB 20/07/18:
It was above 90°F north of the Arctic Circle on July 18, 2018 in northern Finland -- more than 30°F warmer than a normal mid-July day.
PEOPLE are rapidly impacting the Earth's climate, and the Arctic is the most rapidly changing place on the planet. We need to do something!!
Image tweeted by https://t.co/wZIu40AOui

FB 22/07/18

It is very very hot in Japan right now.
Sadly, this type of deadly heatwave is going to become more common as anthropogenic climate change keeps marching on. (H/T twitter: @HakimAbdi)

  
https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2018/7/22.html - German weather service 22/07/18 - average temperatures across Germany not as hot as summer 2003 (yet), but heat set to build this week. (Also drought problems in Germany, Holland and Belgium.) Summer heatwave city temperatures around Germany compared with averages from 1961 onwards: 2018 stands out high by a large, well above average in Frankfurt and Berlin, but not all.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause - Observer 22/08/18 - cause of heatwaves is the jetstream weak and slow all around the northern hemisphere, enabling blocking high pressure systems to persist for weeks on end.







Contribution to the current heat wave: FB 260718
 · See original · 
22 hrs · 
Hitze in Deutschland – der eine freut sich über das hochsommerliche Wetter, für den anderen können die hohen Temperaturen zur (gesundheitlichen) Belastung werde...
Heat in Germany - the one is happy about the summer weather, for the others, the high temperatures can become the (Health) burden. Overall, the number of hot days has risen in recent decades, and in the future there will be more heat waves in the future.

With the consequences, especially cities have to fight - that is why we encourage measures to adapt to climate change, such as concepts for more city green and outdoor cleared, an appropriate building and event, as well as safe drinking water supply: www.bmu.de/PM7885

It is also clear: to prevent even stronger and more serious consequences of climate change, we must move forward in climate change. That is why we are going to put a climate protection law on the way, which, for the first time in Germany, is legally binding and binding on us to achieve our climate targets by 2030

From <https://www.facebook.com/>

Excessive heat across parts of Europe yesterday, July 26th

From <http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/excessive-heat-across-parts-of-europe-yesterday-july-26th/>

July sees extreme weather with high impacts

From <https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-sees-extreme-weather-high-impacts>


Includes parched grass, wildfires, dry reservoir in UK. Global extremes of supersog, superdry, but mainly heat and drought. Dry Elbe river in Germany



Summer Reading



The heat-induced mind fog made for slow reading this summer, but it was fulfilling, particularly Tim Dee's anthology

Holiday Reading

Offline, sans wifi or phone reception while away in May in the NW Highlands, we did a lot of reading. This was mine:



RSPB – Badgers Guide

Nicholas Crane – “The Making of the British Landscape from the Ice Age to the present” (2017)

Naoki Higasida – “Fall Down 7 Times Get Up 8”. Introduced by David Mitchell, translated by KA Yoshida (his Japanese wife) and David Mitchell. Published in UK 2017. Follows book by same author (s) published here in 2013, written when NH 13y, “The Reason I Jump”.

RSPB – Badgers Guide - an overview of all things Badger, including their geographical distribution, habitats and habits. Good and bad confluences and run-ins / run-overs with humans; the complex controversial issue of bTB and badger culling in an attempt to control it. All illustrated with good, clear photos. I hadn't realised some English placenames pertain to badgers, including Brockenhurst in the New Forest, brock being another word for Badger. I've gone off sausage dogs, too. I hadn't twigged that their German name, Dachshund means literally, badger hound. They were bred small and sausage like to fit into the tunnels leading into badgers' setts and hound them out.

Nicholas Crane 
Started while away, continued back home. 

Begins with a series of maps, 12,000BP – to the present (2010s). First three maps during the millennia after the ice from the last ice age retreated from Britain. Purely geographical, being the Mesolithic (Middle Stone Age). Some of the detail intelligently made up, particularly river systems. The first map 10,000y BCE (12,000y BP), Britain still uninhabited after the retreat of the Devensian ice sheet which had rendered much of  Britain off-limits. Globally this glaciation ended 20,000y BP; and sea levels were already rising. The map still shows an ice sheet covering Scandinavia; and also a much smaller one of central Highland Scotland (the Loch Lomond Stadial). Even if largely ice free, the hard tundra  climate is inconducive to human hunter gathering. Though global sea level is rising, Britain still joined to the continent; and dry land drained by big rivers in what’s now the North Sea. The rapidly warming, improving climate, though came at the cost of the low lying areas submerging; on Doggerland with every tide and storm. The land link with Ireland disappeared about 11,000BP; and Britain became cut off once again from the Continent by 7000BP; Doggerland reduced to a few islands off East Anglia, which quickly became submerged themselves. Land in the SE was also sinking due to isostatic rebound of the crust after the ice had retreated. Even in a hunter-gatherer society, it’s likely that people would have had a strong attachment and sense of place, making the loss of landmarks of several generations beneath the waves grievous.
Previously, through the Pleistocene, waves of hominid incursions from the continent / Doggerland during warmer interglacials. Earlier hominids pre-dating Homo Sapiens, modern humans.

Reading around elsewhere, Gupta etc.
I've always had a fascination with the palaeography of Britain and the near continent during the past few million years, particularly from about 3 million BP onwards; ie the Pliocene, Pleistocene and Holocene periods. Particularly interesting to see how river systems have changed, in numerous cases radical changes of course; usually due to advancing / retreating ice sheets but also tectonic forcing; and, of course, changing sea level.
Landscapes / Geo what ifs approx 3Ma rivers changing courses, islands
Loire 3Ma BP (tectonic)
Geo-Brexit 1.0 – 450ka, 180ka megafloods Severn-Dee-Mersey last ice age – Ironbridge Gorge and Industrial Revolution kick-off

Naoki Higasida

Still non-fiction, but different from the my usual readings on landscape, travel and nature. I bought this after reading The Reason I Jump, by the same author, published in 2013. NH has autism and is non-verbal. Much of his communication is via an alphabet grid. He wrote his first book when he was age 13. Like this one, it was introduced by David Mitchell, translated by KA Yoshida, motivated by trying to better understand their son who also has autism. The second book is again a first hand perspective describing his experiences of living and growing up with his form of autism; but now as a young adult. 

As with writings on my reading generally, this isn't a review. There are plenty of those elsewhere. More my personal response and thoughts provoked:

Generally short, clear and concisely  chapters, necessitated by NH's relatively slow / labour-intensive means of communicating nearly everything he needs to say through an alphabet grid. Also make for easy, quick reading (more than I'll say for Ian Sinclair's millennial M25 circuit, which really was a slow crawl, read before coming away).

David Mitchell says - NH's first book was generally well received, yet a minority took it to be a fraud / fake because it flowed totally against their perceptions and understanding of autism. Even some experts apparently.

Much of what NH he says about caring for / living with / providing / attitudes to someone like him with autism sans speech as a child and young man, applicable to many other special needs at all ages, including older people hard of hearing; people with so-called learning difficulties. Among them; well meaning people yet limited aspirations / expections; school etc.

Meltdown – don’t like the word in this context, but widely used for want of a better one. All very well tutting and telling anyone in full meltdown to calm down and get a grip is fruitless, pointless and can make things even worse. Too much water in confluence simultaneously will raise the river into full flood; which may hurt and inconvenience people. Yet once the flood is propagating downstream, nothing can stop it. When too much rain, the river can’t help bursting it’s banks. My analogy, not NH's but he’s fully aware of the upset and inconvenience his meltdowns and other difficult behaviours cause those around him.

Touching words about parents and sister.

The Journey – perceptive, empathetic story about someone with dementia.
Being unable to communicate your needs and desires distressing, frustrating, scary for everyone. 

National Autistic Society  - 2016 Too Much Information. Videos making the point of information overload / reduced ability to filter out /some senses turned up to high causing some people with autism to feel overwhelmed. When flood of information gets all too much, meltdown, eg busy noisy shopping areas where so much stuff competing for attention. Even if verbal, can’t always communicate what’s bothering them.

NH speaks of a “collision” between strong emotions he finds hard / is unable to express and trying to control them.
Given how busy Tokyo / modern Japan is, I wonder how he deals with this. He doesn’t mention sensory overload. Also curious about how he finds living with autism in Japan particularly, with its busyness and culture. Most Japanese homes very cramped, but no mention of the challenges that might impose, for instance. According to him and DM, autism provision, understanding and tolerance of much better in Japan and the UK (both sound about the same but don’t know how much funding for support is an issue over there) than South Korea or France. Don’t know about the first one, but read elsewhere it's way outdated and appalling in France. Best case in NH's experience was the US, eg letting him into normally no-go areas of museum's galleries to satiate an unusual but harmless fixation. Might other gallery-goers see this as preferential treatment – they let him through, but not my son; hey, we had to pay to come in here etc.







A Radical Shift in Weather and Water

A radical meteorological - hydrological shift

Cold wave to Heatwave
Damp sog to super-dry
Oops gloops banished - soils parched dry, cracked

22nd April - Lots of photos and a few videos on FB of last night’s thunder and lightning. A particularly good one with several fork lightning stikes over Fawley.
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26th April - Facebook dredged up a memory from this day two years ago Thursday or my video of the drive back to Inverness on the Ullapool across the higher ground; snow either side of the road; snow falling; so not unusual.
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May

As someone who goes for the cooler weather and dynamic skies, we chose right by holidaying near Gairloch in the NW Highlands during the first half of May. Though it was dry throughout and warmer during the second week; I was largely blissfully unaware of the big warm-up / dry-up beginning throughout the rest of the UK and well beyond. More on that trip in my Water & Art blog.
My Cycling Man, stayed in the north for another week, to go cycling with a twice-Munros man, turned passionate cyclist. I headed home early on May 21st, on the 7.00am flight to Gatwick from Inverness; window seat booked with the hope of enjoying the view. Though much of Scotland was clouded out, I still saw a good deal of the length of Britain from the Murray Firth to the English Channel. Flying over Liverpool and the Wirrall, the cranes on the Mersey opposite New Brighton (last visited during the early autumn heatwave of 2016). Then followed the Dee inland. Shortly after that, I recognised the bend in the Severn between the Welsh and English Bridges at Shrewsbury; and was subsequently able to follow the Severn to the Avon confluence at Tewkesbury, almost to its estuary. Ironbridge Gorge was particularly prominent, with the circles of the red earth cooling towers of the power station (now closed). The gorge stood out for being so straight and narrow compared to the open, sinuous stretches of river either side. I won’t repeat it here, but it’s all to do with Geology and change in course of the Severn at the end of the last ice age.

Off the plane and back home, it felt it as if I’d walked straight into summer. The following Saturday, 25oC in London. Another spell of major seasonal adjustment followed.

You turn your back and they’ve grown eight feet!
We usually go away in May, often to somewhere in the Scottish Highlands. Usually, we’ve enjoyed good weather, but it has a habit of flipping from cool and pleasant to hot, humid and midgy; within a day in the more sheltered areas such as the glens. In that phase, a given temperature always feels warmer than the same back down south: 15oC I begin to think, that’s warm enough’ 20oC, I want to go home. It was the low twenties in Inverness the weekend before I flew home; but it felt more pleasant than usual; probably because it was dry and more breeze. While away, I do lots of sketching and certainly came home with plenty of mountain and island related material. Frustratingly, the drive to develop this material evaporates faster than a fish pond in a drought once I get home, as everything moves on. Post-May hols more than any other; the scenery and weather in highland Scotland being very different from that back home; and if there isn’t a turnaround in the weather while away, it happens soon after coming home. May is peak-berserk for garden weeds growing – turn your back and they’ve grown eight feet! There’s always a demoralising big backlog / overgrowth to tackle on our return, fuelling post-hols anti-climax. Though that didn’t hit me immediately this time; it did over the warm, muggy, thundery, headachy late May bank holiday weekend.

The last few days of May were warm and thundery, after an otherwise very dry month. Most of the rainfall total for that month came then. The real heat came on during the second half of June, but it would be the last the last Sunday of July (29th) before we saw any more noticeable rainfall.



That OMG Spring! Thing

Notes made after Easter, through April:


Bus to Lee during middle of Thursday to sketch, there and at Hill Head. A bright, calm day with little wind. Solent calm. Best of the light earlier on when still cloud about and sun not quite so high. Very clear across the Solent and westwards along it. Certainly the easiest day for plein air sketching in a while. Worked with some watercolour, oil pastel and water soluble pencils, on a Reeves watercolour board (watercolour paper on cardboard) and the small watercolour sketchbook I took to Arundel and Lancing last weekend. This was the first such day and the first reliably dry day of the Easter school holiday period.  Of course, everyone was out, especially along the coast. A bit fraught, or at least irritating in the honeypots and pinch points while out along the coast; particularly car parks, Hill Head visitor  centre cafe and the area by The Shack tea kiosk at the western end of Lee. It's rather like this / hits me like this every spring on the first fine day over the weekend. Depending on the weather timing of this varies: usually middle of March onwards. A bit later this year and  not the weekend, but it felt as if the family spring bursting out after being stuck indoors with kids  Easter Sunday postponed several days until now. Funnily enough, Arundel pretty quiet last Sunday, but for the area by the Castle.
Thursday easier in that it wasn’t windy. Friday, though was more breezy. A bit too warm in my violet rainproof-windproof walking to Warsash in the sunshine; but too cold by the Hamble at Warsash in the wind. After a relatively cloudy period, the strong sunshine feels like a shock. It strong now, strong enough to be hard on my eyes everywhere along our local coast / roads / pavements etc. Things are growing, and really growing, meaning we’re hopefully through peak mud. Still someway to go before the larger trees are in leaf. When they are not in leaf, the glare from strong sun feels worse. The sun is as strong now as it is at the end of August.

8th – 9th April Wet and very murky. Unappealing outdoors. 

Week beginning 16th April:
I do this every year, every time the seasons change: go through a period of adjustment in body and mind; and yes, a whinge for every season. Every season has perennial hassles / challenges I don’t miss out of season: short gloomy days of late autumn / winter; maybe ice; maybe mud; yet it’s much easier to get productive work done in the artroom then as there are fewer distractions and it’s more comfortable, easier on the eyes without the glare of sunshine off concrete, PVC etc. Spring – happening now, with different, mixed feelings. The heat and light OTT of summer; then just as that’s wearing off, the days drawn in again and all the blooming Christmas stuff clutters the shops 2+ months out of time.

This winter, as already said felt like a long one. This has a lot to do with the dull, damp January – early February, with several weeks of our own private chill when the boiler went down. Then something happened in the high atmosphere above the Arctic, triggering the late cold spell of late February / early March and ensuing snow. That was followed by a lot of cloudy damp weather; particularly over the early Easter. Though spring relatively late, it’s not as late as it was 2013; though  there was less snow then. When it does come later, everything goes mad when it starts, as if all let off a leash / lid lifted. A real sense of that happening any minute now, as April went on. When spring is early like last year, everything seems too far, too early, too fast. Whatever the weather and timing of it, I always go through an adjustment to the warmer temperatures, stronger sun and generally different vibe. Invariably the wrong clothes (usually too thick / too many on a warmer, brighter day, meaning I feel too warm. On another, overly optimistic only to feel cold in the wind.
And there’s also the blooming garden weeds growing. No, I’m not a gardener and I feel guilty about not making full use of what is a larger than average back garden for the neighbourhood. It’s either that or art.
The good news is that, thanks to the abundant rainfall in January and the wet, late spring, we have had a good water recharge season. Groundwater levels and river flows are all good, meaning we can afford a summer.

Oops Gloops Easter Sunday

Arundel, Sunday 1st April


“I’m not ashamed to say that river scared me”.
More on that later…

Dry Easter Sunday, mainly cloudy, before more rain Easter Monday. Still feeling chilly. Carl went cycling. Expect the bike got muddy. I went to Arundel, via very slow time consuming train journeys. Wore wellies, but even in those didn’t get very far all along the riverbank. Just sketched and watched tidal currents and swans battling them or toiling fruitlessly against them.
My train was more than half an hour late getting to Barnham - signalling problems, then crawled behind an even slower train. We seemed to have had another bad spell on the railways this winter. Got to Barnham only just ahead of the Arundel train (11.06 left 11.09). Think that was the train I'd have caught anyway, so did the waiting on the train instead of on the platform. Not the case on the way back. Don’t think the train back to Barnham was seriously delayed, but it didn’t connect with the Southampton train, so had nearly an hour to wait at Barnham. At least I could use the time to update my notes, via my smartphone; and  can keep up to date with what’s going on and use the time. A small sketch / notebook handy for these waits as well. Tend to avoid Sunday train travel as not so many trains, but tired of long winter run of off-putting weather (this long weekend no exception) mud and engineering work on the railways most weekends since the beginning of the year.
Got to Arundel about 11.20am. As usual now, walked under A27 near station following newish path there and joined left bank of river to Arundel bridge just before town centre. That was churned up and muddy, so very slow going. Guy painting fence on my left, warned me about wet paint, and mud. Tide rising, already high, still over with two hours to go before high water. Still the muddy brown sulky wintery colour, though improved by reflecting the sky which, though cloudy, a hint of brightness trying to break through. Grey, though  more the grey of spring. Hints of that at least, with daffs and primroses, a few touches of greenery.
Crossed bridge and went into the Norfolk Centre, small hall next to the Castle entrance. Usually a local art group exhibition on here over Easter; and they usually serve tea / coffee and a biscuit for about £1. This time it was Bognor Regis Art Society. A quick look at the art. Had a cuppa.
High water Littlehampton entrance 13.01BST, 6.1m CD. High tide at Arundel, about 50 minutes later. Spring tide, coefficient 105% peak of this tidal cycle, but river probably fairly high after the rain as well. I wondered how high it would go. The tide was rising when I arrived. Though strong current, the water upstream of the pinch point nearer the bridge was not turbulent and very reflective.
Began walking along the right bank, round the bend towards the Black Rabbit. Got as far as the sluice gate at outflow from Swanbourne Lake. After that, the path along the floodbank was too muddy even in wellies, so turned round and spent the rest of the afternoon sketching. First, sat down on a tarpaulin sack, with views both ways along the river. Views clearer and much more open after winter dieback of reeds and trees not out yet. Tried drawing swans. A few near where I sat, on the overspill of the tide onto the berm beneath the bank. Sheltered here from the current. A fair bit of bird activity, on and above the water. Black headed gulls now black headed for spring / summer. A few drifting with the current. Swans paddling to stay still against it. Ducks away from the strongest stream nearer the bank. A constant stream of straw / reed debris going with the flow. Several big blocks of polystyrene stuck on the berm, dumped by earlier tides. One near the riverside car park  in Arundel a metre long, though that had been moved onto the landward side of the floodbank. Probably part of the detritus accompanying the plastic crate on the berm half way round, with a Dutch label. Likely off the back of a boat.
BBC1 seem to have revived / are revisiting The Generation Game, originally presented by the late Sir Bruce Forsyth in the 1970s. The contestants had to memorise the items passing them on a conveyor belt. The more they remembered, and remembered correctly, the more prizes they won. Just suppose the conveyor belt was the fast running tide on the Arun, with an assortment of stuff being carried along it. Cuddly toy, fondue set, three piece suite probably not funny to anyone who’s had to go through a flood (at home); but today: big branch; cormorant; several black headed gulls; half a dozen swans, mallards, decaying real Christmas tree; plastic bottle, polystyrene; straw, more straw; more plastic…Some of this stuff (like the Xmas tree and polystyrene now on the banks). No secure footing off the floodbank to safely fish out the block of polystyrene near where I was sketching while tide in.
The slack of the high tide as I finished off my first round of sketching (small double spread A6 pad). By the time I got to the slipway, the tide had turned and, to the confusion of some passers by, was the flow reversed.
During the middle of the afternoon, the sky brightened somewhat; even a very brief glimpse of the sun. They have cut back quite a bit of stuff near the slipway upstream of the car park / Arundel Boathouse. At least now, before the trees out, clear views of the Castle and town around St. Nicholas church. A handy, albeit muddy bench, surrounding by bog / puddles from the high tide. Water now falling and back within bank. Useable / sittable-on with my underside tarpaulin. Sketched the view along the river, enjoying the brief brightening of the sky. Worked on tinted brown paper, loose sheets from the Tiger pad; oil pastel and coloured pencil. Much easier having the seat to sit on. During the course of my riverside stroll contemplated my watercolour palette for Higham in five months’ time  Higham Hall palette. Today called for muted colours. As to more “serious” plein air work using pastel, really need a standing easel; but don’t want to have to carry / cart one too far. I have a basic lightweight stool which I could try again; but that’s not ideal. Would have been OK today looking towards the town; but when sat by water, invariably lose the view over floodwalls etc and perspective seems much better when standing up.
While my attention was on sketching the Castle and buildings on the hillside, the ebbing tide was really gathering pace. Faster than the Adur at Shoreham yesterday, and there the tide was running out pretty fast. The bridge (well all the bridges from about Greatham to the constricted Littlehampton harbour entrance are pinch points which increase the speed of the current and make it more turbulent. As I didn’t linger by the bridge when I arrived here, I didn’t notice the flood tide there so much. Today, though today the ebb tide was more the eyeopener. Maybe it was more marked because of the combination of a spring tide combined with a relatively high fluvial flow downstream (EA hydrographs on Easter Monday afternoon indicated the level at Houghton Bridge at high water was high enough to overflow, certainly in Amberley Wildbrooks, which are, after all, wetlands. No flood alerts or warnings in this area, though.
What was especially eye opening and the main thing I took home from today, was the turbulence just downstream of the bridge when the tide was ebbing. The pinch point here narrowed further by the ferry pontoon. As the current raced and swirled around the pontoon posts, straw debris got caught and trapped: one lot behind one of the posts nearer the bridge, generating an eddy and small whirlpools as the current swirled around it. Then, in the calm sheltered area between the pontoon and the bank, the downstream facing side, lots of straw. Two swans working together presumably / very likely building a nest, as birds do in early spring. The female, was at the downstream end, the other, the male, further in gathering clumps of straw in its beak and passing them down. The big shame was all their effort would be undone when the tide rose and reversed again this evening. A hint of sun on the water as I crossed the bridge to head back to the station for the 16.39 train.
 On the way back to the station, walking along the road all the way, a guy said as I passed him,  “I’m not ashamed to say that river scared me.” I hadn’t been aware of him, but I guessed he was watching the water by the bridge. As I was walking faster than him and not initially sure I heard right above the traffic, I missed the opportunity to get talking in the way I’ve always been tempted here, “Yes, this is one of the fastest rivers in England.”.
The Arun doesn’t scare / strike me as much as it used to, thanks to decades of river wandering. Tidal rivers with strong tidal currents are all round our island, among them, the fastest, most famously and the scariest of them all the Severn. The Thames through London is rough as well.
Nevertheless, when I first saw how rough it could be here and at the mouth 30+ years ago, I was taken aback. Even now, it still brings me up short, as it’s  done time and again through the decades with numerous other people.  I reckon it has as much to do with the setting as as roughness: the low lying soft south; a relatively accessible river flowing through an area popular for  leisurely  days and holidays.  Not the place I’d expected to find rivers as fast as this one can be when the tide is running full pelt. At Arundel, you can’t see the sea from the town and it looks more river than estuary..
To quote my Cycling Man’s text while waiting for trains, re: muddy wellies, “Ooops gloops!”His bicycle got very muddy, but now washed. On train home, more cloud closing in over the sun. Raining heavily by 10pm.
Nothing at all unusual about this Easter: April 2000 was very wet – a prelude to the soggy, floody last four months of the year. April 1998 wet, too, as noted recently. Feels more marked and muddy because the more usual pattern lately has been early, mild, relatively dry springs like the ones we had last year, as well as 2011, 2014, 2015. Milder Easter Monday, even if very wet.

Easter Notes / The Channel


The Channel
29th March - Various programmes on Radio 4 this week marking the  Brexit “countdown”. The better, less controversial ones have been the 15 minute programmes about the English Channel / Manche: its effects on our literature, culture, psyche. They started off on Monday, with Prof. Sanjeev Gupta talking about the geological megaflood events breaching the chalk ridge which spanned the Dover Strait until the later Pleistocene (about 450ka BP onwards), dubbed Brexit 1.0, around the publication of the Nature Journal paper about findings beneath the Dover Strait. He ends by wondering What If?
On Easter Saturday, 31st March, I headed to the Channel coast at Lancing and walked to Shoreham, sketching along the way.
That followed a wet, damp Good Friday morning in Chichester, where I noted: Lavant flowing well. Dodged large puddles on pavement, including near where Lavant re-emerges from culvert, at foot of ramp up to footbridge over A259 dual carriageway. Then one big one in the eastern corner of the multi-storey car park, blocking the exit at one end. OK for 4x4s; saw one car go through, with very wet underside; we didn’t want to risk it. Got out by turning round and doubling back.
Compare and contrast weather now with that this time last year. Last year, high pressure, spring well underway; though all a bit too far too fast, especially after a dry winter. This year, 8oC in the south, feeling like 4oC in the wind; there were warnings of snow on higher ground for Monday, but don’t know whether they still stand. The ground is waterlogged everywhere; very noticeable from the train between Havant and Lancing.
Flood count up overnight: EA had 15 flood warnings out this Saturday morning – mostly southwest England and east Midlands, including the Nene and the Avon around Rugby (20 years ago, Easter flooding, 2nd week of April. Particularly badly hit were the East Midlands and along the Tewks Avon. Flood at Evesham topped 17ft, topped again (18ft +?) July 2007.
Was I sure about Shoreham? Today one of the better days of the Easter long weekend, forecast to be wet again on Monday, mainly cloudy, grey and chilly 8C over the weekend. Forecast to be better further east along the coast.
Knew for sure much more likely to get mud free walk in through urban  / pavement walking along coast than anywhere off-road /off-pavement.
Morning cloudy and glum. Train journey, sat on right, south side. Lighter, brighter sky towards coast. Chasing the light.
Sketches – pencil / graphite. Perhaps colour in back home, perhaps try out watercolor palette for Higham Hall list. Need to do, and get used to watercolor, practice sketches / paintings in watercolour, soft pastels, large brushes. Gairloch could be trial run. Other than being cold, sounds quite nice up there at the moment, sunnier anyway. For larger format / Plein air, need more settled weather, though not missing that hard sunlight.
Got off at Lancing station and walked to the beach area. Cuppa on picnic table at kiosk next to building with gym etc. First of a series of quick sketches of sea and sky as I walked along the shore to Shoreham. Sharp horizon broken by turbine poles of the Rampion wind farm. My usual media for quick sketches: pencils, Inktense, Neocolor waxy pastels for lights. Various sheets of  paper and small watercolour pad. Weather better than I’d expected: it stayed dry through the day and enjoyed changing cloudscape on the horizon, sun coming through the clouds, lighting a sliver of the horizon and the white cliffs east of Brighton.  Above the Brighton shore, tower blocks and the i360 rod. Could see the pod going up and down, slowly. Past beach huts, boats, the lagoon on my left, once an arm of Shoreham Harbour. Boat on backshore silhouette against light. Rock armour.
At Shoreham Beach, turned inland to cross the Adur Ferry Bridge. Lunch on seats near it. Still extensive, long running tidal flood defence work being undertaken by the Environment Agency, going on until at least next autumn. All along the Adur shore, closing off / diverting most the paths along the between the Harbour mouth and A27. Wall on south side of the Ferry Bridge now mainly complete, but still fences up along the slipway and further along towards the houseboats. Not so easy now to get onto the shore here like we did on one of Steve Carroll's sketchcrawls; no way over the wall. When I got to the Ropetackle arts centre, path closed to the north under the railway bridge. Tide in. Went back to Shoreham Beach and walked along the beach to Shoreham Fort and the Harbour entrance, continuing my Channel shore wanderings. Still brighter over the sea than inland. More sketches at the Fort.
Back along beach, boardwalk half way. Colder facing into the wind. Tide along Adur, beneath Ferry Bridge going out fast. As I saw last autumn, several shattered glass panels in the bridge. Presumably deliberate rather anything weather / accidental, if so sad. Did they anticipate this when they built the bridge?
Cuppa in Toast on the Coast in Shoreham High Street, before catching 15.46 train back.
Though a dry day where I went, flood count up again this evening as Friday’s rain runs through the (river) systems. At 9.00pm this evening: the Met.Office had a yellow warning out for rain tomorrow for England and Wales, everywhere SW of a line from about the Dee to Beachy Head for Sunday evening and much of Monday. On Monday, too, still a snow warning in northern Britain (yellow again), mainly high ground. The EA’s flood count in England was 17FWs around 7.00pm, but down to 12 two hours later. Among the ones dropped later was the North Sea coast around Tynemouth and Whiteley Bay; but there are two warnings on the Tewkesbury Avon and the Severn at Tewkesbury and Maisemore-Sandhurst. The Avon at Evesham was 2.71m aCD at 8.00pm, peak expected at 2.8m. The 21st July 2007 peak was 5.52m (18.11ft), the highest recorded here. The Severn has been rising fairly rapidly since yesterday. At Haw Bridge, below Tewkesbury and the Avon’s outpourings, there is an added tidal effect. Even more so at Maisemore. High spring tides after a full moon. Levels could rise further on Sunday and Monday. 113 flood alerts across large parts of mostly SW England and the Midlands and East Anglia; but also the Thames above Teddington, the Esk above Whitby.

The Mini Beast from the East


17th – 18th March

Saturday cold and windy, with a few snowflakes around midday; but no real snow until after dark. On Sunday morning, woke up to a blanket about 8cm deep. Snow blowing around in the cold wind, but no more falling. Once again, walked to Warsash in crampons over wellies, but didn’t really need them as the snow was slushy / melting from the roads and pavements fairly quickly. Cold hands and feet, though in the wind. Did a very rough oil pastel sketch in the park on the way down there, of a circle of snowmen. Too cold for that, nearer the water, so I kept it to photos. Certainly a turnaround from much more spring like day on Friday along the Lavant. Now lots of flowering daffs trampled by fallen snow.
Snow finally melted Tuesday and wind dropped. Equinox this week. Is that it for now?

Spring interlude along the Lavant


Friday 16th March

Bounced back after a bug, I took the train to Chichester for a walk and a think. Walked to / from The Trundle; in the spring sunshine; before rail engineering work and another, very belated coldwave with snow comes in for the weekend (daytime temperatures back down to or a couple of degrees below freezing; after 11oC and upwards this week. The weather pattern for the weekend is much as at the beginning of the month, with high pressure over Scandinavia bringing the northeasterlies; fronts bringing in snow from the NE, troughs and convergences. Only the high’s not as intense in the centre; peaking at 1040 millibars and the cold / snow sub-freezing temperatures lasting only to Monday morning. For my own weather, felt much better than I did on Sunday. Only the Lavant streaming this time, though still coughing. One sign of spring, even if it doesn’t feel like it in any other respect:  these last couple of days was over dressing in winter raincoat, light fleece and finding I was having to take them off 10 minutes into the walk; or perhaps that’s just the menopause. Recall whinging about snow on about 23rd March threatening to disrupt taking pictures to Farnham during that very cold March in 2013. This March more confusing for warming up this week, only for more cold come in just as we all thought it was over. It won’t feel like spring in my mind until, not only a lasting convincing end to snow, ice and bitter northeasterlies. Also an end to the blocked pattern of trivial but off-putting complicating hassle: persistent bugs; engineering work and / or weather disruptions and disincentives for getting out at weekends; being able to plan something involving a journey (local and further afield) without the real prospect of having to cancel it, or just having it cancelled for me. For Saturday, though, exaggerating my bug status somewhat through not being in the mood; but could argue I’m being extra-cautious. Given the forecast, including an amber warning for snow and ice in the Farnham Saturday night and through Sunday, don’t even know whether the Cradley folk will even be coming at all now. Trouble is, presumably having booked the Premier Inn again, they’re committed / or will loose a lot of money if they have to cancel at this stage.

Took the shorter route out of Chichester, to East Lavant. More annoying traffic in city centre and roads through East Lavant than on a weekend. Some event on at Goodwood soon. Sign up road past Lavant church for show traffic, probably keeping them away from Chalkpit Lane, but lots of vans, lorries etc turning right of the road near the church. Meant it was quieter further along nearer Chalkpit Lane. Still a fair bit of tiresome mud about on some stretches of path including around gate near the Trundle car park which I didn’t spot until I’d walked down the hill through the field.
Daffodils out all along the Lavant in Sheepwash Lane. Doesn’t feel right we should have to have another coldwave, over what will be the last weekend before the vernal equinox, astronomical spring in the northern hemisphere.
On the Trundle did some loose, semi-abstract sketches looking north towards Singleton and Levin Down, filling up the softback A4 sketchbook I’d started at Eastbourne in August (Sussex sketchbook). Also brought some loose sheets of brown paper. As lighting / views so good, wished I’d brought more paper / another sketchbook with me. Hadn’t as, with the bugs cold and general hassle / discomfort and inconducive weather, the unstoppable sketcher had lost her motivation and oomph. Brought a tarpaulin bag to sit on  today which helped, but got it back. Worked very loosely and now aiming for semi-abstract drawings of places I know well; especially the Downs. Tore up some of the brown paper for the Levin Down sketch, to stick down at home; though had pieces blowing away at one point. Caught them before they blew away down the hill. Used coloured pencils, graphite and oil pastel.
Though not bright all the time, an interesting, changing cloudscape and light when looking from The Trundle, particularly coming down, when bright sky beneath a finger of cloud against the sun, extending towards Chichester Cathedral; sun on fields in middle distance. Another quick sketch on path while coming down.
Then near the gate at the top of the Hayes Down field, an abstracted view of the view down to the Lavant. Drawn to the sun on the ploughed field above the valley and road. While here, an interesting chat with a guy carrying a camera on a tripod. He said he filmed local wildlife and farm life. Lately I haven’t really felt chatting much when out and about; really for feeling tired with my bug and lack of voice. Typical then to meet people who wanted to chat for several minutes at a time, beyond Hello, can I have a look? That’s very good; see you later . Usually older people (about 60 and up, though that’s very rough). Often these people, usually older (the youngsters seldom say much) want to talk to people; maybe lonely, it generally brightens my day. The woman in the ladies at Southampton art gallery last Saturdayprobably 70+. I had to be careful here because my bug was beginning to bite and I felt very tired. She also said she had COPD, apparently just out of hospital so I really didn’t want her catching anything. I wasn’t at all interested in Mother’s Day (last Sunday, or not the retail / advertisers’ nags to buy more unnecessary stuff to fill in the gaps between Christmas and Easter) and when she assumed I was one, hard not to snap “I feel better for not bothering with all that [having kids]”. Instead I turned it round to say I’d be thinking of my mother and mother-in-law; appropriate. One upside to being 50 and not 20 is I’m better able to stop myself being short with people and my slower flow enables more to reply more sympathetically and with more consideration. When I got talking today, though, I enjoyed it as we shared a common interest in the local countryside; not wanting to see it messed up (he bemoaned dog mess and careless owners, as I did on Sunday). He asked me about the River Lavant – does it flow only every other year? He says he films purely for his own pleasure (not sharing / uploading / exhibiting anywhere); to enhance his memories of being out in the countryside if / when the days comes when he can’t get out. He said he’d been looking for lambs to film but didn’t find any. Maybe they’re late this year, confused by the coldwaves in February and March. For the first time, though, I noticed the sheep grazing in the field on the west side of the Lavant.
Before joining the Centurion Way, I went down to the footbridge over the Lavant, on the path up to the main road. Pleasing lighting  on the fields where they caught the sun; and good to see a good, speedy flow in the stream.
Walked back via the Centurion Way, stopping at a picnic table by the railwaymen to make some notes. During the course of my walk (mainly the more tedious stretches between Chichester city centre and East Lavant) thoughts flowing on from yesterday’s art group meeting. Boring stuff about this GDPR thing, but some Smiles for the spring newsletter. Home about 6pm after stopping at Chichester Costa for a cuppa.

When the Beast from the East Met Storm Emma


March began with the Beast from the East’s date with Storm Emma. Subsequently, they got in bed and spawned a mini-Beast during the third weekend of the month. 

Meaning, two cold snaps bringing snow to large parts of Britain, including our part of the Soft South. Though unexceptional, they were notable for being late in the year – during the meteorological spring – and the transport disruption they caused. These are my edited journal notes from the time (south Hampshire):
Thursday March 1st - Woke up to a dusting of snow. More forecast for this afternoon. Art Group’s AGM cancelled. The Chief Chartered Engineer, along with most of his colleagues working at home.
Dire and news reports and weather warnings. Red warnings now in both central Scotland, including Edinburgh and in the far SW of England / South Wales, including Cardiff. The latter due to the snow-bearing weather fronts coming in from south emanating from Storm Emma which is now in the Bay of Biscay. We’re just on the border of the amber warning zone for wind and snow today as the fronts are now forecast to travel more SSW-wards towards Devon and Cornwall. Glad we don’t have to go anywhere as transport system thrown into chaos. Worst in Scotland where red warning. People stuck on motorways there, no trains running north of Carlisle. Troops called into some areas such as Lincolnshire. Warnings, too about gas supply shortfalls today because demand is so high in Britain and on the continent; less gas storage in Britain now. Charities providing shelters, but rough sleepers on our streets is socially unacceptable in a so-called first world country in any sort of weather, let alone sub-freezing temperatures. It got down to about -4oC here last night. Inland it’s been lower, nearly -9oC in Farnborough on Monday night. Double figure low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in France, too. Even sub-freezing in Corsica. Cold wave all the more notable that far south considering the sun is climbing higher in the sky now. The picture here for the weekend less reassuring now, too. For now, Sunday still looks OK; and no snow forecast round our way after tomorrow; but the forecast temperatures have been revised downwards by the Met.Office over the weekend, with highs of about 5oC or 6oC over the weekend; and still a yellow warning on Saturday for ice. Storm Emma down to 969 millibars by tomorrow and forecast to spawn several small areas of low pressure centred in the Bay of Biscay / off SW England. Needs to be at least 5oC to be sure of roads and pavements not being icy. Here the snow fell more heavily, blowing around from the afternoon onwards, with several centimetres of cover by dusk.
In other news, minor earth tremor yesterday (magnitude 3.2) up Derwent’s way near Cockermouth and Keswick.

Friday 2nd March – Happy Snow Day!
The Met.Office have now taken down their really dire warnings (red and amber), though still a yellow one in the south for today and tomorrow. As of 3.45pm, not as much snow I’d expected from the forecast during the day, just one shower as I was walking back, but could still change.
They have now revised the temperatures for the weekend back upwards to a high of 5oC on Saturday and 8oC Sunday, 6oC at 9.00am Sunday which will hopefully be enough to melt ice. There are no weather warnings for Sunday morning here now. I’m more hopeful now about Sunday, though there is more snow forecast for tonight.
We’ve both been wary of snow and ice in our immediate neighbourhood, ever since the cold, icy spells of 2009/10, our first winter here. Then it had been a while, after a run of largely mild winters since the early 1990s, punctuated by only short cold snaps. Like everyone else, we’d forgotten what to do – eg are we supposed to put grit down outside the house ourselves, or does the council do it. Since then, everyone has been better prepared – Britain’s weather this decade has shown we all need to be prepared for everything. The issue in our immediate neighbourhood is, we live in a dip; and though none of the slopes are steep, they’re all around, including at the foot scale. This made getting out of the house, on foot or by car during that first January dicey and icy. The main roads were clear and moving, but not us in the cul-de-sac. The other thing about our local topography is, not being able to see round the corner or far up the hill, staying too long in the house can quickly shrink perspective. Worse than cancelling events for everyone because of the weather, is it being no-go just for me because of the quirks of our n’hood in icy weather while everywhere else is running normally. One way round it was crampons to wear beneath boots / wellies, which have at least given me more confidence.
After more snow overnight - about 10cm of snow by daylight – my Chief Engineer in lockdown mode. I didn’t like that mode or the shrunken perspective coming from being stuck in the house, glued to online news reports and Met. Office weather warnings. Worsened by windows being closed 24/7 to keep the heat in. I wrapped up, put on wellies plus crampons and, leaving him to it, I headed out to break this bad vibe.
At Warsash, the vibe was Christmas / New Year snowy family day out; with children sledging in the dip in Dibbles Road and Strawberry Field – “Happy Snow Day”! someone called out as I passed them on the way out of the park. All very unusual for the first Friday in March. Some upstart daffs along the path nearer the Hamble buried in snow. Tide in on the Hamble, so don’t know if there was any ice along the shore beneath the high water mark (there was in February 2012), Snowy yachts in sailing club near Rising Sun.
Last night we were just on the edge of the amber warning zone, which stopped at about the IOW / Southampton Water. Westwards of that, heavier snow. People stuck on the A31 through the New Forest and a train from Christchurch stuck, too. Still bad in the north. Also today and yesterday, a few tidal flood warnings in NE England, including Whitley Bay, Whitby and Tynemouth; and a few in the SW, including Swanage Bay. Tides in these areas raised by strong winds. The French have them out along most of the estuaries on the west coast, including the Aulne, the Odet, the Loire below Nantes and a vigilance orange along the Gironde / tidal Dordogne where they were forecasting a 60cm surge. Storm Emma seemingly slow to move out of the Bay of Biscay. The big loop in the jetstream bringing in the Beast from the East has now detached from the main stream, forming an oxbow lake. Main stream running over Spain and north Africa.
Here. the  snow began melting on Saturday morning, and melting quickly as the temperature rose above freezing and stayed above freezing. Carl did a bit of shovelling outside to help speed it along. Walked down the Hamble to Warsash, wearing my crampons under my boots to start with, but quickly found I didn’t need them. The snow was getting very slushy as it melted. More the usual problem of big puddles everywhere. A few sledgers in Strawberry Field trying to catch the last of it, but it was getting desperate. It felt relatively warm.
I made it, then to Red Hot Press on Sunday morning (4th March).