Sunday, December 27, 2015

Difficult Confluences in the North

Ouse in the News again as York floods after Boxing Day deluge

Here’s to a peaceful, storm-free Christmas, I said to the River Avon before we left Pershore to head home the Monday before Christmas. I had in mind here the floods in Cumbria earlier in December, the flooding in SE England on Christmas Eve 2013, along with major flooding along the Tewkesbury / Warwickshire Avon in April 1998 and July 2007. The level of the Avon now looked fairly normal. Notwithstanding all the waterlogged ground and mud everywhere, we got off lightly in the south. It rained as we tucked into our Christmas dinner. Boxing Day was dry, though very dull and windy. Though we were blessed with a peaceful Christmas, this was not the case everywhere around Britain.

As Christmas falls during what are usually the wettest and stormiest months in Britain and NW Europe  - the north Atlantic depressions at their deepest – there’s every chance that there will be flooding somewhere in these areas over the Christmas-New Year period. In 1982 it was France (the depressions must have been further south that year; late December 1999 was very stormy in France, too. Two years ago it was southeast England. This time – as if the flooding from Storm Desmond earlier in the month wasn’t enough – northern Britain was hit by Storm Eva which rolled in during Christmas Day and deluged the Yorkshire and Manchester area on Boxing Day. There was also renewed flooding in Cumbria (including Ullswater, Appleby) just before Christmas (21st / 22nd December). Then, at the year’s end, it was Scotland’s turn, with Storm Frank on 30th December.

Among the worst affected and / or attention grabbing areas in the aftermath of Storm Eva were Manchester, Leeds and York. In the Manchester area, the River Irwell, a tributary of the Mersey, took out the wall of a pub. In Leeds, the River Aire rose to record levels: upwards of 5m above normal, a good metre up on the previous high. Vaguely remember hearing during the November 2000 flood that the water here was running in excess of 1000 cubic metres per second. This would have been even more, then. In the aftermath of the flooding, the UK government came under renewed criticism for cutting spending on flood defences. Leeds had been in line for a major flood defence programme, only for it to be cancelled. In York, pumps failed on the Foss flood barrier on Boxing Day (Saturday afternoon) which meant they had to keep the barrier open. This led more widespread flooding around the city than usual: not only was the Ouse running very high from all the water coming down from the Pennines – there was also flooding along the smaller River Foss, all the more as the floodwater from the Ouse backed up along it. The Ouse peaked at just under 5.2m in York City centre (EA Viking Recorder, 28th December AM, 5.17m, 17’ 1’’). This was lower than the peak of the 2000 flood (5.4m / 17’8’’, 04/11/2000), but now ranks as the second highest flood recorded in the city. As there has been a large flood here roughly every ten years since the early 1980s, I thought they’d had their fill for the 2010s in September 2012 (5.07m, 16’ 8’’, 26/09/2012). The existing flood defences – raised floodbanks, directing some of the excess flow upstream of the city centre into Clifton Ings, the Foss barrier – were completed in 1987, following the notably high flood in 1982. That was in early January – 5.05m / 16’7’’, 05/01/1982. Particularly as I was immersing myself in all things rivers at the time, I remember the news reports quite well. True my mood my perceptions were coloured by teenage moods and a low point in family life, but even in the cushy south it seemed gloomy right through from December to March. This flood came after a rapid thaw in heavy snowfall, the last time I remember snow melt having any significant influence on flooding in England. TV news reports showed footage of York underwater. Downstream Cawood and Selby were badly affected; as they were this time round. The River Wharfe joins the Ouse at Cawood. That was on severe flood warning 28th – 29th December as it took out a bridge at Tadcaster.

Storm Frank rolled in on 30th December. The low pressure involved here, took a late turn north, therefore Scotland bore the brunt of the weather this time. Notably badly hit areas were Deeside. Dumfries and Peebles. The Tweed at was among the rivers SEPA had on severe flood warning. Video footage of the river running high and fast very close to the top of an iron footbridge.


Environment Agency – Flood defences need a complete rethink – Guardian 28/12/15

Failed flood defences cast doubt on UK readiness for new weather era:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/floods-army-called-continue-devastate-northern-england?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Drive

As said previously, the Westminster government has got its public spending priorities wrong when it comes to infrastructure, with airport expansion and damaging new road schemes seemingly deemed more important than protecting people – including major centres of population such as Leeds – from flooding and what some commentators are calling a new era of weather amid rapid human induced climate change. Seemingly for decades parts of the north of England has suffered economically while the economy in London and the south has overheated. For one thing, new runways for Heathrow and / or Gatwick, but alternatives in the north are off the table. When it comes to flood defences, there have been claims during the aftermath of the recent deluges that the south has benefited at the expense of the north, too. Expensive flood defence schemes approved for the Thames valley and Littlehampton, yet not Leeds. The real issue is that the whole of the UK is exposed to flooding. In winter 2013 / 14, southern and central England had a triple whammy of fluvial, groundwater and tidal flooding, with the Somerset Levels and the Thames valley being among the areas worst hit. Out and about along the Hampshire coast at Langstone after Christmas (28th December), I was reminded yet again of just how low lying and exposed this stretch of coast is, even to a normal spring tide. There were flood barriers and bags on the doors of buildings along the shore, such as the Royal Oak. Seaweed debris encroached onto the shoreward end of Langstone high street from the peak spring tide over the weekend. An RNLI lifeboat painted on the flood barrier across the door of no.15. Sandbags. All beneath a tired looking Christmas wreath.

Since at least the floods of 2000, the general pattern has been as follows: a deluge of media coverage from the affected areas; miserable footage of flooded properties / people being rescued from them; news crues standing in big puddles in wellies and waders; the PM putting on the wellies for the Sorry about your flood – yes, we’ll invest in flood defences walk. The a prolonged period of calm, dry weather; when that all gets forgotten, until the next round of flooding. Meanwhile everyone affected by the flood left to clear up all the mess and wait for their homes to dry out and be habitable again, long after the  news crues have moved on to the next big story.

When the weather calms down after this lot, how about a sensible debate, followed by real action on flood defences - the best sort of defence at a given place; and how to best prepare the UK for the effects of climate change and the already seemingly increasing incidence of so-called extreme weather. One big thing about the floods from Storms Eva and Desmond was that they hit areas which had had flood defences built following major flooding during the past 10-15 years. Most notably Cockermouth, Keswick and Carlisle. Yet they proved inadequate because of the sheer quantity of rainfall. I’d thought until now, York was one of the best protected cities in the UK outside London (do I remember rightly that the estimated cost was £22 million in 1982 money?). Even with more flood defences with money  no object, the increasing incidence of extreme weather / intense bursts of rain, there’s potential for an arms race involving higher and higher flood walls vs bigger and bigger floods. Are there any lessons to be learned from elsewhere in Europe, most notably Holland? The population density is similar to that of the UK, with large areas of urbanisation and intensive agriculture. The land is low lying, and susceptible to flooding from the North Sea, together fluvial flooding from the delta of the Rhine and Meuse.

We need a Dutch-style Delta plan to stem the tide of floods, Henk van Klaveren, The Guardian27/12/15

Guardian Editorial 27/12/15

Guardian Letters 27/12/15

Reports


Storm Eva

Guardian / Observer


Storm Frank