December 2015
The flood misery in northern England and parts of Scotland in the wake of so-called Storm Desmond, is another sign, surely of extreme weather becoming the new norm amid a rapidly changing climate.
Early on the morning of Saturday, 5th December, I knew rivers and things were up when looked on the Environment Agency's Flood Warnings Summary and River & Sea Levels (England & Wales) pages, before heading off on the train to London. The flood warning count was up to 45. The Severn had been rising slowly during the previous week, following heavy rain on the Welsh Hills the previous weekend. It was due to peak at Tewkesbury later on Saturday. This was a regular winter flood of the sort they expect along the Severn during most winters. Most of the new warnings were in northern England, where the real trouble was ensuing. Scotland as well (covered separately by SEPA). As we've seen for ourselves, albeit to a lesser extent during more regular, less intense spells of rain, northern rivers tend to rise very quickly, before dropping again just as quickly. The EA's hydrograph for the Tyne at Corbridge showed the water level shooting up several metres overnight and was well over flood point.
On the train back down south, the Arun was in its usual glum mid-winter mood; the colour of weak tea and somewhat windswept. This was around half-eight, but still barely daylight because it was so dull and cloudy. Yellow bands of weak low sunshine in a gap in the cloud south towards the coast. As I strolled round London and sketched along the Thames during the middle of the day (relatively calm with a neap tide), little did I know that the River Eden was running amok through Appleby-in-Westmorland. By the time I was on the train home, back along the Arun valley and south coast in the darkness, the EA had 91 flood warnings out, along with over 40 severe flood warnings. Two of them were along the Tyne at Corbridge, which was up at 5.6m (normal range here 0.13 - 3.30m). All the other SFWs were in Cumbria, including the Eden and Caldew in Carlisle; the Cocker and the Derwent at Cockermouth; the Derwent and the Greta around Keswick; the Kent, including Kendal; the Eamont out of Ullswater...By Sunday morning, 6th December, SEPA also had a SFW out on the River Teviot through Hawick on the Scottish border. The Tay, Tweed and Clyde were also reported to be running high - I'm being more vague here as SEPA don't seem to have as much publicly available / accessible information on their flood warning pages as the EA have south of the border.
This was the third major flood to hit Cumbria in little over ten years. Yes, the Lake District is the wettest area in England, yet it shouldn't have been this wet. Daily rainfall totals in the hundreds of millimetres are more akin to tropical cyclones than low pressures systems coming over the British Isles from the north Atlantic.
The floods in January 2005 and November 2009 - were put down at the time as likely to occur only once a century. The 2005 flood in Carlisle was well above that of the previous high (March 1968). This one broke the record again. The Met. Office said that 341mm fell on the Honister Pass, near Keswick, during the 24 hours from 6.30pm Friday 4th December. The previous record for England, set during the 2009 floods had been set in November 2009: at Seathwaite, not far away in Borrowdale - 316mm in 24 hours (20/11/2009). At Thirlemere, the 48h record was slashed (405mm). Following the earlier floods, flood defences were built in all these areas, thought at the time to be robust enough to withstand a soggy repeat. Well they bought people time, to evacuate their homes/ businesses to move things out of harm's way. In the end, though, the sheer amount of rain involved proved too much: the rivers overtopped them. An outcry about government cuts to flood defence spending subsequently ensued. Thousands of homes and businesses across Cumbria were flooded.
Wherever it happens flooding's always messy and miserable. As I probably said during the last round of floods in December (SE England Christmas 2013), to have it happen during the run up to Christmas, at what should be a happy, celebratory time, is all the crueler. And it's not just the immediate term: long after the news crues have gone, people are stuck in temporary accommodation, eg caravans while they wait for their homes to dry out / become habitable again. Invariably (eg Gloucestershire 2007) it can be well over a year. Invariably, too, longterm emotional stress with the memory of it all and subsequent nervousness everytime it rains.
The floods in January 2005 and November 2009 - were put down at the time as likely to occur only once a century. The 2005 flood in Carlisle was well above that of the previous high (March 1968). This one broke the record again. The Met. Office said that 341mm fell on the Honister Pass, near Keswick, during the 24 hours from 6.30pm Friday 4th December. The previous record for England, set during the 2009 floods had been set in November 2009: at Seathwaite, not far away in Borrowdale - 316mm in 24 hours (20/11/2009). At Thirlemere, the 48h record was slashed (405mm). Following the earlier floods, flood defences were built in all these areas, thought at the time to be robust enough to withstand a soggy repeat. Well they bought people time, to evacuate their homes/ businesses to move things out of harm's way. In the end, though, the sheer amount of rain involved proved too much: the rivers overtopped them. An outcry about government cuts to flood defence spending subsequently ensued. Thousands of homes and businesses across Cumbria were flooded.
Wherever it happens flooding's always messy and miserable. As I probably said during the last round of floods in December (SE England Christmas 2013), to have it happen during the run up to Christmas, at what should be a happy, celebratory time, is all the crueler. And it's not just the immediate term: long after the news crues have gone, people are stuck in temporary accommodation, eg caravans while they wait for their homes to dry out / become habitable again. Invariably (eg Gloucestershire 2007) it can be well over a year. Invariably, too, longterm emotional stress with the memory of it all and subsequent nervousness everytime it rains.
The rainfall patterns during the past few decades seem to becoming more and more binary. They are either full-off as in much of continental Europe for much of this year. Apparently, the Rhine's been down to another record low this autumn. If not, they are full-on, with more intense rainfall like the kind above. As the Guardian said online, major flooding somewhere in Britain is becoming almost an annual event. This increased rainfall intensity and all-or-nothing binary pattern could likely be even more common thanks to human-induced climate change. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour. We seem to be seeing more and more episodes of blocking weather in which the north Atlantic jetstream, hence the track of the rain-bearing low pressure systems, is stuck in one position for weeks or months on end. This December, there has been high pressure bringing predominantly dry weather across continental Europe. The track of the low pressure systems and their associated rain-bearing fronts has been across northern Britain. One editorial (The I - Independent lite, 8th December) said what we are seeing now is the future we envisaged twenty or thirty years ago.
The culprit this time was Storm Desmond, Typhoons and hurricanes (tropical storms at lower latitudes) have long had names. The more moderate north Atlantic low pressure systems had been going with the names given to them by an meteorological centre in Berlin (the very deep low which brought gales and flooding across southern England just before Christmas 2013 was called Cyclone Dirk across the Channel). The Met. Office's move to get the public to name this winter's lows had seemed a bit pointless, maybe even sensationalist, when we used to just call them plainly and simply low pressures / deep depressions. Given what ensued with Desmond, however, calling it a storm and giving it a name seemed very appropriate - a list of names for this winter's low pressures
systems. Previously this winter, we've had Barney, Abigail, Clouda, always alternating between male and female names.
A selection of News reports / Youtube Footage
The culprit this time was Storm Desmond, Typhoons and hurricanes (tropical storms at lower latitudes) have long had names. The more moderate north Atlantic low pressure systems had been going with the names given to them by an meteorological centre in Berlin (the very deep low which brought gales and flooding across southern England just before Christmas 2013 was called Cyclone Dirk across the Channel). The Met. Office's move to get the public to name this winter's lows had seemed a bit pointless, maybe even sensationalist, when we used to just call them plainly and simply low pressures / deep depressions. Given what ensued with Desmond, however, calling it a storm and giving it a name seemed very appropriate - a list of names for this winter's low pressures
systems. Previously this winter, we've had Barney, Abigail, Clouda, always alternating between male and female names.
The prevailing weather pattern during November and early December feature a blocking high over continental Europe, with the lows passing to the NW of the British Isles with fronts sprawling across mainly the northern half of Britain. Meteo France btw, said November was warm and sunny, across France, with highs in the 20s-celcius during the first week, including northern France. Rainfall was below the longterm average in most areas.
http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/31285346-un-mois-de-novembre-tres-chaud-et-ensoleille
On both sides of the Channel the mild weather during the autumn has continued into December. With highs in southern England of 12C upwards, it doesn't seem like a proper winter. Dark season would be more accurate. The nearer we've got to the end of the year, the more disorientating the mild weather has felt. Whereas, the north has had way too much rain, there's every danger of the European drought carrying on through next year, especially if the higher temperatures lead to less of a snowpack over the mountains to recharge rivers such as the Rhine.
http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/31285346-un-mois-de-novembre-tres-chaud-et-ensoleille
On both sides of the Channel the mild weather during the autumn has continued into December. With highs in southern England of 12C upwards, it doesn't seem like a proper winter. Dark season would be more accurate. The nearer we've got to the end of the year, the more disorientating the mild weather has felt. Whereas, the north has had way too much rain, there's every danger of the European drought carrying on through next year, especially if the higher temperatures lead to less of a snowpack over the mountains to recharge rivers such as the Rhine.
A selection of News reports / Youtube Footage
By the middle of the following week, numerous You Tube Storm Desmond videos had appeared clearly showing the extent and fury of the flooding:
Carlisle underwater - aerial views. City mostly unrecognisable, even with the helpful captions pointing out places such as Debenhams, The SANDS Centre and the McVities biscuit factory. I heard someone speculate (Call You and Yours, BBC Radio 4, 8th December) that the future of the latter as a longtime local employer may be threatened by repeated flooding.
Confluence of Eden and Caldew, where on a much more peaceful morning in August 2007, someone said they see otters there. Now, the junction and course of both rivers was impossible to trace beneath several metres of muddy water. River Eden right up to the top of the arches of Scotland Bridge, the main road bridge. During earlier quiet times, a fine summer's evening enroute to my very first trip to Scotland, age 15, my father sketched.
Ullswater - Pooley Bridge taken out by force of water flowing out of the lake. The YHA (Patterdale) up the valley was sometimes as a stopover enroute to Scotland with my Munros Man.
High Force - where the River Tees meets the harder dolerite rock of the Whin Sill. Among the places visited during a week's residential school course on The Geology of the British Isles with the Open University during the early 2000s. Now more than living up to its name and most impressive.
Unusually, water flowing over the cliff of Malham Cove. They say it did just after the last Ice Age when the ground was frozen, but now the waters of Malham Beck sink into the ground just after they flow out of Malham Tarn, before re-emerging at the foot of the Cove (Guardian centrefold, c7th December).
The Fury of the Flood
Update 21st January 2016:
CEH National River Flow Archive / Monthly Hydrological Summaries for the UK
Environment Agency Water Situation Reports for England
In their monthly hydrological summary for the UK, the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology (CEH) described December 2015 as "an extraordinary month both in meteorological and hydrological terms". These summaries include rainfall data from the Met. Office, soil moisture, groundwater, reservoirs stocks as well as river flows. The emphasis this time was indeed on flooding and what were exceptionally high flows in a number of catchments in northern Britain. An estimated 16,000 homes were flooded during the month across England alone (see later entries in 2015 about the floods in Yorkshire following "Storm Eva"), around 6000 of these in Cumbria. Not only did Cumbria suffer during "Storm Desmond", but also during the heavy rainfall events around Christmas, too. UK-wide, it was the wettest calendar month, thanks the exceptional rainfall in the north, even though rainfall totals were much more modest (and sensible) and close to average in southern England (Met.Office 1971-2000 averages). In Scotland and Wales and northern England, the monthly total were more than 350mm, over twice the LTA. The mean monthly river flows recorded at gauging stations from the Severn northwards were at least twice the long term average (length of records vary, though many are 45+ years), 300%+ in northern England and Scotland. The Tyne, Eden, and Lune set new records for registered peak flows in England: provisionally around 1700 cubic metres per second. The CEH report includes a bar chart of mean annual river flows on the Tyne (Bywell) from the 1960s onwards shows 2015 standing out like a saw thumb at twice the previous high, even with the influence of Kielder Reservior in the North Tyne basin.
On 8th January 2005 (Weather Eye, Hayloft) the Eden in Carlisle peaked at around 1500 cubic metres per second (Paul Crabtree, Weather Eye Issue 17 (2005) Frosted Earth; The Great Flood, Hayloft (2005)). To get some perspective of what we're talking about here - the force of fifteen-hundred vans or 4-by-fours coming at you every second - lets consider some other figures / compare with other rivers. The mean annual flow gauged by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CEH (who hold the National River Flow Archive for the UK) for the Eden at Sheepmount, near Carlisle is 51 cubic metres per second, for a catchment size of just over 2200 square kilometres. Flows 1000+ cubic metres per second are relatively rare in the UK, especially England and Wales; all the river basins being relatively small compared to continental Europe / globally. The all-time high recorded on the Severn (CEH gauging station at Bewdley, March 1947) is around 600 cubic metres per second (basin size around 4300 square kilometres. The River Tay in Scotland has the largest river basin in the UK and highest mean flow rates, respectively for the gauging station at Ballathie nearly 5000 square kilometres and mean annual flow rate of 150 cubic metres per second. Much of the basin is in the Scottish Highlands with high annual rainfall. In a record going back to 1952, the all time high was nearly 2000 cubic metres per second, in 1993 (data again from CEH). Floodmarks at Perth record higher much higher water levels in the nineteenth century. Flow rates would have been up accordingly. However, these pre-date the Pitlochry-Loch Tummel hydropower scheme which holds back significant quantities of water.
1700 tonnes of water coming down the Seine every second, could have Parisians worried. This sort of volume of water is probably very common along the lower Loire in winter (total catchment size of 117,000 square kilometres). Given how dry it's been in France lately, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Eden, Tyne and Lune were outrunning it at the peak of the flood.
Update 21st January 2016:
CEH National River Flow Archive / Monthly Hydrological Summaries for the UK
Environment Agency Water Situation Reports for England
In their monthly hydrological summary for the UK, the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology (CEH) described December 2015 as "an extraordinary month both in meteorological and hydrological terms". These summaries include rainfall data from the Met. Office, soil moisture, groundwater, reservoirs stocks as well as river flows. The emphasis this time was indeed on flooding and what were exceptionally high flows in a number of catchments in northern Britain. An estimated 16,000 homes were flooded during the month across England alone (see later entries in 2015 about the floods in Yorkshire following "Storm Eva"), around 6000 of these in Cumbria. Not only did Cumbria suffer during "Storm Desmond", but also during the heavy rainfall events around Christmas, too. UK-wide, it was the wettest calendar month, thanks the exceptional rainfall in the north, even though rainfall totals were much more modest (and sensible) and close to average in southern England (Met.Office 1971-2000 averages). In Scotland and Wales and northern England, the monthly total were more than 350mm, over twice the LTA. The mean monthly river flows recorded at gauging stations from the Severn northwards were at least twice the long term average (length of records vary, though many are 45+ years), 300%+ in northern England and Scotland. The Tyne, Eden, and Lune set new records for registered peak flows in England: provisionally around 1700 cubic metres per second. The CEH report includes a bar chart of mean annual river flows on the Tyne (Bywell) from the 1960s onwards shows 2015 standing out like a saw thumb at twice the previous high, even with the influence of Kielder Reservior in the North Tyne basin.
On 8th January 2005 (Weather Eye, Hayloft) the Eden in Carlisle peaked at around 1500 cubic metres per second (Paul Crabtree, Weather Eye Issue 17 (2005) Frosted Earth; The Great Flood, Hayloft (2005)). To get some perspective of what we're talking about here - the force of fifteen-hundred vans or 4-by-fours coming at you every second - lets consider some other figures / compare with other rivers. The mean annual flow gauged by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CEH (who hold the National River Flow Archive for the UK) for the Eden at Sheepmount, near Carlisle is 51 cubic metres per second, for a catchment size of just over 2200 square kilometres. Flows 1000+ cubic metres per second are relatively rare in the UK, especially England and Wales; all the river basins being relatively small compared to continental Europe / globally. The all-time high recorded on the Severn (CEH gauging station at Bewdley, March 1947) is around 600 cubic metres per second (basin size around 4300 square kilometres. The River Tay in Scotland has the largest river basin in the UK and highest mean flow rates, respectively for the gauging station at Ballathie nearly 5000 square kilometres and mean annual flow rate of 150 cubic metres per second. Much of the basin is in the Scottish Highlands with high annual rainfall. In a record going back to 1952, the all time high was nearly 2000 cubic metres per second, in 1993 (data again from CEH). Floodmarks at Perth record higher much higher water levels in the nineteenth century. Flow rates would have been up accordingly. However, these pre-date the Pitlochry-Loch Tummel hydropower scheme which holds back significant quantities of water.
1700 tonnes of water coming down the Seine every second, could have Parisians worried. This sort of volume of water is probably very common along the lower Loire in winter (total catchment size of 117,000 square kilometres). Given how dry it's been in France lately, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Eden, Tyne and Lune were outrunning it at the peak of the flood.
According to The Guardian, there were grumbles that NE England was getting overlooked as virtually all the media attention was on Cumbria. Most notably along the River Tyne, arguably on average the most powerful river in England. At the CEH's gauging station at Bywell, the water level reached almost 7m (Guardian report, 6th December), exceeding the previous high of 6.3m. The catchment size and mean annual flow rate in metres per second are comparable to those of the Eden at Carlisle. The CEH gauged data here includes mean daily flow of over 1000 cubic metres per second in January 1982. However, that pre-dated the completion of the Kielder Dam, with the Kielder Reservoir in the upper valley of the North Tyne. The post-Kielder high was a mean daily flow of just over 800 cubic metres per second. That was January 2005. As for the Eden, I wouldn't be surprised if the peak on 5th or 6th December this year exceeded that, maybe even attaining four figures again.
