Sunday, December 27, 2015

Difficult Confluences in the North

Ouse in the News again as York floods after Boxing Day deluge

Here’s to a peaceful, storm-free Christmas, I said to the River Avon before we left Pershore to head home the Monday before Christmas. I had in mind here the floods in Cumbria earlier in December, the flooding in SE England on Christmas Eve 2013, along with major flooding along the Tewkesbury / Warwickshire Avon in April 1998 and July 2007. The level of the Avon now looked fairly normal. Notwithstanding all the waterlogged ground and mud everywhere, we got off lightly in the south. It rained as we tucked into our Christmas dinner. Boxing Day was dry, though very dull and windy. Though we were blessed with a peaceful Christmas, this was not the case everywhere around Britain.

As Christmas falls during what are usually the wettest and stormiest months in Britain and NW Europe  - the north Atlantic depressions at their deepest – there’s every chance that there will be flooding somewhere in these areas over the Christmas-New Year period. In 1982 it was France (the depressions must have been further south that year; late December 1999 was very stormy in France, too. Two years ago it was southeast England. This time – as if the flooding from Storm Desmond earlier in the month wasn’t enough – northern Britain was hit by Storm Eva which rolled in during Christmas Day and deluged the Yorkshire and Manchester area on Boxing Day. There was also renewed flooding in Cumbria (including Ullswater, Appleby) just before Christmas (21st / 22nd December). Then, at the year’s end, it was Scotland’s turn, with Storm Frank on 30th December.

Among the worst affected and / or attention grabbing areas in the aftermath of Storm Eva were Manchester, Leeds and York. In the Manchester area, the River Irwell, a tributary of the Mersey, took out the wall of a pub. In Leeds, the River Aire rose to record levels: upwards of 5m above normal, a good metre up on the previous high. Vaguely remember hearing during the November 2000 flood that the water here was running in excess of 1000 cubic metres per second. This would have been even more, then. In the aftermath of the flooding, the UK government came under renewed criticism for cutting spending on flood defences. Leeds had been in line for a major flood defence programme, only for it to be cancelled. In York, pumps failed on the Foss flood barrier on Boxing Day (Saturday afternoon) which meant they had to keep the barrier open. This led more widespread flooding around the city than usual: not only was the Ouse running very high from all the water coming down from the Pennines – there was also flooding along the smaller River Foss, all the more as the floodwater from the Ouse backed up along it. The Ouse peaked at just under 5.2m in York City centre (EA Viking Recorder, 28th December AM, 5.17m, 17’ 1’’). This was lower than the peak of the 2000 flood (5.4m / 17’8’’, 04/11/2000), but now ranks as the second highest flood recorded in the city. As there has been a large flood here roughly every ten years since the early 1980s, I thought they’d had their fill for the 2010s in September 2012 (5.07m, 16’ 8’’, 26/09/2012). The existing flood defences – raised floodbanks, directing some of the excess flow upstream of the city centre into Clifton Ings, the Foss barrier – were completed in 1987, following the notably high flood in 1982. That was in early January – 5.05m / 16’7’’, 05/01/1982. Particularly as I was immersing myself in all things rivers at the time, I remember the news reports quite well. True my mood my perceptions were coloured by teenage moods and a low point in family life, but even in the cushy south it seemed gloomy right through from December to March. This flood came after a rapid thaw in heavy snowfall, the last time I remember snow melt having any significant influence on flooding in England. TV news reports showed footage of York underwater. Downstream Cawood and Selby were badly affected; as they were this time round. The River Wharfe joins the Ouse at Cawood. That was on severe flood warning 28th – 29th December as it took out a bridge at Tadcaster.

Storm Frank rolled in on 30th December. The low pressure involved here, took a late turn north, therefore Scotland bore the brunt of the weather this time. Notably badly hit areas were Deeside. Dumfries and Peebles. The Tweed at was among the rivers SEPA had on severe flood warning. Video footage of the river running high and fast very close to the top of an iron footbridge.


Environment Agency – Flood defences need a complete rethink – Guardian 28/12/15

Failed flood defences cast doubt on UK readiness for new weather era:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/floods-army-called-continue-devastate-northern-england?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Drive

As said previously, the Westminster government has got its public spending priorities wrong when it comes to infrastructure, with airport expansion and damaging new road schemes seemingly deemed more important than protecting people – including major centres of population such as Leeds – from flooding and what some commentators are calling a new era of weather amid rapid human induced climate change. Seemingly for decades parts of the north of England has suffered economically while the economy in London and the south has overheated. For one thing, new runways for Heathrow and / or Gatwick, but alternatives in the north are off the table. When it comes to flood defences, there have been claims during the aftermath of the recent deluges that the south has benefited at the expense of the north, too. Expensive flood defence schemes approved for the Thames valley and Littlehampton, yet not Leeds. The real issue is that the whole of the UK is exposed to flooding. In winter 2013 / 14, southern and central England had a triple whammy of fluvial, groundwater and tidal flooding, with the Somerset Levels and the Thames valley being among the areas worst hit. Out and about along the Hampshire coast at Langstone after Christmas (28th December), I was reminded yet again of just how low lying and exposed this stretch of coast is, even to a normal spring tide. There were flood barriers and bags on the doors of buildings along the shore, such as the Royal Oak. Seaweed debris encroached onto the shoreward end of Langstone high street from the peak spring tide over the weekend. An RNLI lifeboat painted on the flood barrier across the door of no.15. Sandbags. All beneath a tired looking Christmas wreath.

Since at least the floods of 2000, the general pattern has been as follows: a deluge of media coverage from the affected areas; miserable footage of flooded properties / people being rescued from them; news crues standing in big puddles in wellies and waders; the PM putting on the wellies for the Sorry about your flood – yes, we’ll invest in flood defences walk. The a prolonged period of calm, dry weather; when that all gets forgotten, until the next round of flooding. Meanwhile everyone affected by the flood left to clear up all the mess and wait for their homes to dry out and be habitable again, long after the  news crues have moved on to the next big story.

When the weather calms down after this lot, how about a sensible debate, followed by real action on flood defences - the best sort of defence at a given place; and how to best prepare the UK for the effects of climate change and the already seemingly increasing incidence of so-called extreme weather. One big thing about the floods from Storms Eva and Desmond was that they hit areas which had had flood defences built following major flooding during the past 10-15 years. Most notably Cockermouth, Keswick and Carlisle. Yet they proved inadequate because of the sheer quantity of rainfall. I’d thought until now, York was one of the best protected cities in the UK outside London (do I remember rightly that the estimated cost was £22 million in 1982 money?). Even with more flood defences with money  no object, the increasing incidence of extreme weather / intense bursts of rain, there’s potential for an arms race involving higher and higher flood walls vs bigger and bigger floods. Are there any lessons to be learned from elsewhere in Europe, most notably Holland? The population density is similar to that of the UK, with large areas of urbanisation and intensive agriculture. The land is low lying, and susceptible to flooding from the North Sea, together fluvial flooding from the delta of the Rhine and Meuse.

We need a Dutch-style Delta plan to stem the tide of floods, Henk van Klaveren, The Guardian27/12/15

Guardian Editorial 27/12/15

Guardian Letters 27/12/15

Reports


Storm Eva

Guardian / Observer


Storm Frank




Christmas Weather Goes Crackers

Missing – One Winter - as Christmas approached, temperatures in southern and central England more like March or April – a balmy / barmy, blowy Christmas - melting ice rinks – daffodils flowering for the winter solstice / Christmas (my photo taken at East Meon, 23rd December). Overall very disconcerting and disorientating. Seemingly Christmas has gone totally crackers this year.

While in the Worcestershire area, the weekend before Christmas (19-20 Dec), bats and buds. On the Sunday,  we took a very muddy walk on Bredon Hill, then called into a café in Pershore. There we read the paper (The Observer, 22nd December, which had a double spread about all this sort of stuff –  All Calm on the Cam: highs of 17oC in eastern England as crazy December weather continues (Cambridge) plus feature on p 12-13 about the causes: human induced climate change (global heating) coupled with the strongest El-Niño in the eastern Pacific (off Peru) since at least 1997. Where were, the highs were around 15oC. A complete contrast to this time during 2010 when it was particularly cold around Pershore, with night time lows dropping to almost-19oC (BBC News, 21/12/2010 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12034317?print=true).

White Christmas off and UK ice rinks melt in mild December weather - The Guardian, 23/12/15
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/23/white-christmas-is-off-as-ice-rinks-melt-in-mildest-uk-december-since-1960

Butterflies in church bats along-the-river - Guardian letters - online 24th December (paper copy, 26th December) . One from Arundel Castle's head gardener who said some of their flowers seem to think it’s spring already; bugs and pests not being killed off; and the risk the fruit harvest if early fruit blossom was to be followed by frost. The bats were along the River Aire, which subsequently reached a record level in Leeds amid the Boxing Day deluge (next entry).
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/24/butterflies-in-church-bats-along-the-river


In January, the Met. Office confirmed that, December was the warmest in records for the UK going back to 1910, along with the wettest recorded calendar month. After recent wet episodes such as winter 2013 / 14, that took some doing, going to show just how crazy the rainfall in the north was. 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2016/december-records
The mean monthly temperature average for UK overall showed the highest anomaly recorded for any calendar month (just over 4oC), with the mean temperature for England over 9oC. Thanks to all the sog in northern England and Scotland throughout December, 2015 now ranks in the top ten wettest years in the UK record.

There was a distinctive all-or-nothing north-side in rainfall either side of the English Channel as the blocked weather pattern  over Europe during November continued. The jet stream tended to track just NW of the British Isles bringing all the rain to northern and western Britain; and persistent high pressure over continental Europe making for warm, southerly / southwesterly airflows. This meant with very little or no snow over the Alps and Pyrenees, none over the Massif Central. Aside from spoiling the fun for skiers, this will have real hydrological implications on major European rivers such as the Rhine if it continues like this all through the winter. 

Yet again northern parts of Britain was battered by storms and had to endure flooding during the week after Christmas (Difficult Confluences in the North - Storms Eva and Frank). 

News from the Dry Zone (France), meanwhile, of the Loire stuck at its summer level (French media site, France 3, 30th December):
La Loire à son niveau estival : faut-il s'en inquiéter ?
In answer to this question, worrying though not at all surprising given the synoptic pattern: the Loire receives most of its flow from  rain associated with Atlantic weather fronts its flow peaks during the winter. It goes to show how full-on / full-off the rainfall patterns over northern Europe have become; in rainfall amount and its geographical distribution. I hope things improve in January. During the hot spring of 2011 it ran virtually dry.

According to Eaufrance's hydrological summary for December. Averaged nationally, the total monthly precipitation 70% on what they’d usually expect (1981-2010 average) and the driest December in a record going back to 1959. River flows well below average for the time of year, especially the Loire southwards. 
 Météo France – in their monthly summary of the weather across France in December - http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/32167565-un-mois-de-decembre-printanier-pour-finir-l-annee-2015 - they said that December was spring like, with temperatures exceeding those in March. Nationally, the mean temperature anomaly was similar to that of the UK. Whereas the UK experienced lots of dull and wet weather, they had it very sunny, and also very dry, with rainfall nationally 15% below average (records back to 1900, again 1981-2010 average). Overall, 2015 was the third warmest year in France, after 2014 and 2011 and among the ten driest during the past fifty years, with rainfall 10% below average nationally. It was the second warmest year in Europe.
The worrying thing about the dry weather across continental Europe (as noted recently) is it is consistent with climate change predictions. Also very worrying is the marked warming in the Arctic. According to climate scientists, this maybe why the jet stream is getting stuck in one position on a seemingly increasingly regular basis, invariably taking a loopy, meandering course as it has been lately. See also:
http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/32536533-2015-une-annee-chaude-bien-ensoleillee-et-peu-arrosee


The end of the year, all the warmer with the added influence of the strong El Niño building in the eastern Pacific since the summer.  This involves warming of the sea surface in the Pacific off the coast of South America. It exerts its biggest influence, then around the Pacific – this year forest fires in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, drought in eastern Africa, drought and flood in Australia, wet in California (but until now they’ve had a protracted drought), warm in Alaska and western Canada. Whereas the Atlantic had a relatively quiet hurricane season, there were more typhoons than usual in the northern Pacific, including one which hit the east coast of Mexico. Though Europe is further away from the action, El Niño’s effects feed into global weather patterns as the ocean-atmosphere is a planet-wide, interdependent system. It has also been exceptionally warm in New York / US East coast. 

El Niño brings Christmas chaos
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/from-paraguay-to-the-us-australia-to-spain-el-nino-brings-christmas-chaos?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Drive

El Niño means the (Christ) child as it usually peaks around Christmas. It happens roughly every seven years, buts its irregular.

The strongest events during the past forty years were 1976 /77 – Recall a National Geographic Cover / Feature – The Year the Weather Went Wild – The Golden State Dries Up (drought in California) – Snow in Miami, Slush in Alaska – bears coming out of hibernation in Alaska early as icicles formed on Florida oranges.

1982 / 83 – National Geographic - El Niño’s Ill Wind. News reports of major flooding along the Mississippi River in the autumn; Christmas crues in France – the track of the jet stream and low pressures must have been further south that year – then in early 1983 drought, forest fires and flood in Australia – flash floods and mudslides in California.

1997 / 98 – Forest fires in Indonesia (2015’s even worse yet largely ignored by the UK / European media); 1998 the then warmest year globally on record. Wet again California. Notably mild but wet at times in the UK. Spring early in Alaska, heatwave in western Canada summer 1998.

Globally, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are rising year on year, with 2015 topping 2014 as the warmest year on record globally and 2016 predicted to be even hotter. El Niño is contributing to the current glut of warm years, but thanks to global warming, it’s been almost year-on-year since the beginning of this century and most of the warmest years have been during the past thirty years.

Guardian 27/12/15 - UK floods and extreme global weather linked to El Niño and climate change
.









Thursday, December 10, 2015

Rain, Flood and Fury in the North

December 2015

The flood misery in northern England and parts of Scotland in the wake of so-called Storm Desmond, is another sign, surely of extreme weather becoming the new norm amid a rapidly changing climate.

Early on the morning of Saturday, 5th December, I knew rivers and things were up when looked on the Environment Agency's Flood Warnings Summary and River & Sea Levels  (England & Wales) pages, before heading off on the train to London. The flood warning count was up to 45. The Severn had been rising slowly during the previous week, following heavy rain on the Welsh Hills the previous weekend. It was due to peak at Tewkesbury later on Saturday. This was a regular winter flood of the sort they expect along the Severn during most winters. Most of the new warnings were in northern England, where the real trouble was ensuing. Scotland as well (covered separately by SEPA). As we've seen for ourselves, albeit to a lesser extent during more regular, less intense spells of rain, northern rivers tend to rise very quickly, before dropping again just as quickly. The EA's hydrograph for the Tyne at Corbridge showed the water level shooting up several metres overnight and  was well over flood point. 

On the train back down south, the Arun was in its usual glum mid-winter mood; the colour of weak tea and somewhat windswept. This was around half-eight, but still barely daylight because it was so dull and cloudy. Yellow bands of weak low sunshine in a gap in the cloud south towards the coast. As I strolled round London and sketched along the Thames during the middle of the day (relatively calm with a neap tide), little did I know that the River Eden was running amok through Appleby-in-Westmorland. By the time I was on the train home, back along the Arun valley and south coast in the darkness, the EA had 91 flood warnings out, along with over 40 severe flood warnings. Two of them were along the Tyne at Corbridge, which was up at 5.6m (normal range here 0.13 - 3.30m). All the other SFWs were in Cumbria, including the Eden and Caldew in Carlisle; the Cocker and the Derwent at Cockermouth; the Derwent and the Greta around Keswick; the Kent, including Kendal; the Eamont out of Ullswater...By Sunday morning, 6th December,  SEPA also had a SFW out on the River Teviot through Hawick on the Scottish border. The Tay, Tweed and Clyde were also reported to be running high - I'm being more vague here as SEPA don't seem to have as much publicly available / accessible information on their flood warning pages as the EA have south of the border.  

This was the third major flood to hit Cumbria in little over ten years. Yes, the Lake District is the wettest area in England, yet it shouldn't have been this wet. Daily rainfall totals in the hundreds of millimetres are more akin to tropical cyclones than low pressures systems coming over the British Isles from the north Atlantic.

The floods in January 2005 and November 2009 - were put down at the time as likely to occur only once a century.  The 2005 flood in Carlisle was well above that of the previous high (March 1968). This one broke the record again.  The Met. Office said that 341mm fell on the Honister Pass, near Keswick, during the 24 hours from 6.30pm Friday 4th December. The previous record for England, set during the 2009 floods had been set in November 2009: at Seathwaite, not far away in Borrowdale - 316mm in 24 hours (20/11/2009). At Thirlemere, the 48h record was slashed (405mm). Following the earlier floods, flood defences were built in all these areas, thought at the time to be robust enough to withstand a soggy repeat. Well they bought people time, to evacuate their homes/ businesses to move things out of harm's way. In the end, though, the sheer amount of rain involved proved too much: the rivers overtopped them. An outcry about government cuts to flood defence spending subsequently ensued. Thousands of homes and businesses across Cumbria were flooded.

Wherever it happens flooding's always messy and miserable. As I probably said during the last round of floods in December (SE England Christmas 2013), to have it happen during the run up to Christmas, at what should be a happy, celebratory time, is all the crueler. And it's not just the immediate term: long after the news crues have gone, people are stuck in temporary accommodation, eg caravans while they wait for their homes to dry out / become habitable again. Invariably (eg Gloucestershire 2007) it can be well over a year. Invariably, too, longterm emotional stress with the memory of it all and subsequent nervousness everytime it rains.

The rainfall patterns during the past few decades seem to becoming more and more binary. They are either full-off as in much of continental Europe for much of this year. Apparently, the Rhine's been down to another record low this autumn. If not, they are full-on, with more intense rainfall like the kind above.  As the Guardian said online, major flooding somewhere in Britain is becoming almost an annual event. This increased rainfall intensity and all-or-nothing binary pattern could likely be even more common thanks to human-induced climate change. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour. We seem to be seeing more and more episodes of blocking weather in which the north Atlantic jetstream, hence the track of the rain-bearing low pressure systems, is stuck in one position for weeks or months on end. This December, there has been high pressure bringing predominantly dry weather across continental Europe. The  track of the low pressure systems and their associated rain-bearing fronts has been across northern Britain. One editorial (The I - Independent lite, 8th December) said what we are seeing now is the future we envisaged twenty or thirty years ago.

The culprit this time was Storm Desmond, Typhoons and hurricanes (tropical storms at lower latitudes) have long had names. The more moderate north Atlantic low pressure systems had been going with the names given to them by an meteorological centre in Berlin (the very deep low which brought gales and flooding across southern England just before Christmas 2013  was called Cyclone Dirk across the Channel). The Met. Office's move to get the public to name this winter's lows had seemed a bit pointless, maybe even sensationalist, when we used to just call them plainly and simply low pressures / deep depressions. Given what ensued with Desmond, however, calling it a storm and giving it a name seemed very appropriate -  a list of names for this winter's low pressures
systems.  Previously this winter, we've had Barney, Abigail, Clouda, always alternating between male and female names.

The prevailing weather pattern during November and early December feature a blocking high over continental Europe, with the lows passing to the NW of the British Isles with fronts sprawling across mainly the northern half of Britain. Meteo France btw, said November was warm and sunny, across France, with highs in the 20s-celcius during the first week, including northern France. Rainfall was below the longterm average in most areas.

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/31285346-un-mois-de-novembre-tres-chaud-et-ensoleille

On both sides of the  Channel the mild weather during the autumn has continued into December. With highs in southern England of 12C upwards, it doesn't seem like a proper winter. Dark season would be more accurate. The nearer we've got to the end of the year, the more disorientating the mild weather has felt. Whereas, the north has had way too much rain, there's every danger of the European drought carrying on through next year, especially if the higher temperatures lead to less of a snowpack over the mountains to recharge rivers such as the Rhine.

A selection of News reports / Youtube Footage

By the middle of the following week, numerous You Tube Storm Desmond videos had appeared clearly showing the extent and fury of the flooding:

Carlisle underwater - aerial views. City mostly unrecognisable, even with the helpful captions pointing out places such as Debenhams, The SANDS Centre and the McVities biscuit factory. I heard someone speculate (Call You and Yours, BBC Radio 4, 8th December) that the future of the latter as a longtime local employer may be threatened by repeated flooding. 

Confluence of Eden and Caldew, where on a much more peaceful morning in August 2007, someone said they see otters there. Now, the junction and course of both rivers was impossible to trace beneath several metres of muddy water. River Eden right up to the top of the arches of Scotland Bridge, the main road bridge.  During earlier quiet times, a fine summer's evening enroute to my very first trip to Scotland, age 15, my father sketched.

Ullswater - Pooley Bridge taken out by force of water flowing out of the lake. The YHA (Patterdale) up the valley was sometimes as a stopover enroute to Scotland with my Munros Man.

High Force - where the River Tees meets the harder dolerite rock of the Whin Sill. Among the places visited during a week's residential school course on The Geology of the British Isles with the Open University during the early 2000s. Now more than living up to its name and most impressive.

Unusually, water flowing over the cliff of Malham Cove. They say it did just after the last Ice Age when the ground was frozen, but now the waters of Malham Beck sink into the ground just after they flow out of Malham Tarn, before re-emerging at the foot of the Cove (Guardian centrefold, c7th December). 

The Fury of the Flood

Update 21st January 2016:

CEH National River Flow Archive / Monthly Hydrological Summaries for the UK
Environment Agency Water Situation Reports for England

In their monthly hydrological summary for the UK, the Centre for Hydrology and Ecology (CEH) described December 2015 as "an extraordinary month both in meteorological and hydrological terms". These summaries include rainfall data from the Met. Office, soil moisture, groundwater, reservoirs stocks as well as river flows. The emphasis this time was indeed on flooding and what were exceptionally high flows in a number of catchments in northern Britain. An estimated 16,000 homes were flooded during the month across England alone (see later entries in 2015 about the floods in Yorkshire following "Storm Eva"), around 6000 of these in Cumbria. Not only did Cumbria suffer during "Storm Desmond", but also during the heavy rainfall events around Christmas, too. UK-wide, it was the wettest calendar month, thanks the exceptional rainfall in the north, even though rainfall totals were much more modest (and sensible) and close to average in southern England (Met.Office 1971-2000 averages). In Scotland and Wales and northern England, the monthly total were more than 350mm, over twice the LTA. The mean monthly river flows recorded at gauging stations from the Severn northwards were at least twice the long term average (length of records vary, though many are 45+ years), 300%+ in northern England and Scotland. The Tyne, Eden, and Lune set new records for registered peak flows in England: provisionally around 1700 cubic metres per second. The CEH report includes a bar chart of mean annual river flows on the Tyne (Bywell) from the 1960s onwards shows 2015 standing out like a saw thumb at twice the previous high, even with the influence of Kielder Reservior in the North Tyne basin.

On 8th January 2005 (Weather Eye, Hayloft) the Eden in Carlisle peaked at around 1500 cubic metres per second (Paul Crabtree, Weather Eye Issue 17 (2005)  Frosted Earth; The Great Flood, Hayloft (2005)). To get some perspective of what we're talking about here - the force of fifteen-hundred vans or 4-by-fours coming at you every second -  lets consider some other figures / compare with other rivers. The mean annual flow gauged by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CEH (who hold the National River Flow Archive for the UK) for the Eden at Sheepmount, near Carlisle is 51 cubic metres per second, for a catchment size of just over 2200 square kilometres. Flows 1000+ cubic metres per second are relatively rare in the UK, especially England and Wales; all the river basins being relatively small compared to continental Europe / globally. The all-time high recorded on the Severn (CEH gauging station at Bewdley, March 1947) is around 600 cubic metres per second (basin size around 4300 square kilometres. The River Tay in Scotland has the largest river basin in the UK and highest mean flow rates, respectively for the gauging station at Ballathie nearly 5000 square kilometres and mean annual flow rate of 150 cubic metres per second. Much of the basin is in the Scottish Highlands with high annual rainfall. In a record going back to 1952, the all time high was nearly 2000 cubic metres per second, in 1993 (data again from CEH). Floodmarks at Perth record higher much higher water levels in the nineteenth century. Flow rates would have been up accordingly. However, these pre-date the Pitlochry-Loch Tummel hydropower scheme which holds back significant quantities of water.

1700 tonnes of water coming down the Seine every second, could have Parisians worried. This sort of volume of water is probably very common along the lower Loire in winter (total catchment size of 117,000 square kilometres). Given how dry it's been in France lately, it wouldn't have surprised me if the  Eden, Tyne and Lune were outrunning it at the peak of the flood.

According to The Guardian, there were grumbles that NE England was getting overlooked as virtually all the media attention was on Cumbria. Most notably along the River Tyne, arguably on average the most powerful river in England. At the CEH's gauging station at Bywell, the water level reached almost 7m (Guardian report, 6th December), exceeding the previous high of 6.3m. The catchment size and mean annual flow rate in metres per second are comparable to those of the Eden at Carlisle. The CEH gauged data here includes mean daily flow of over 1000 cubic metres per second in January 1982. However, that pre-dated the completion of the Kielder Dam, with the Kielder Reservoir in the upper valley of the North Tyne. The post-Kielder high was a mean daily flow of just over 800 cubic metres per second. That was January 2005. As for the Eden, I wouldn't be surprised if the peak on 5th or 6th December this year exceeded that, maybe even attaining four figures again.







A27 West Sussex - Grand Plans Thunder On Regardless...

December 2015

Links

South Coast Alliance for Transport and the Environment (SCATE) - Chichester's Future on the Line

Chichester Deserves Better

Arundel under threat 

My sketch of the dry River Lavant, East Lavant Sheepwash Lane
The River Lavant has been late to reappear this year: when I visited East Lavant and the Trundle area on 12th December, the stream was still dry. This time last year it was flowing again, though it was late in  winter 2009/10, 2010/11. In 2012 the bizarre sequence of dry winter followed by wet spring summer, turned it from a winterbourne into a whateverbourne, as it ran dry throughout the winter, only to reappear in May and flow on through the summer. As I said in my Autumn Notes on the Severn and Wye, autumn in much of England and Wales was largely dry until November. It seems that the subsequent rainfall during November and December has yet to filter through the chalk and raise the water table sufficiently for the stream to run.

Our seemingly increasingly erratic weather with either full-on or full-off rainfall seems to be making for generally later, or inadequate recharge, exacerbated possibly by increasing demand for water in densely populated southern England. As if having this and being banished underground through much of Chichester and lost amid the maze of already busy roads to the south of the city wasn't enough, it now faces a new potential threat: a thundering dual carriageway. The same one which threatens to disturb the peace in the neighbouring lower Arun valley to the east.

From about this time last year through to last April, I grumbled about potentially very damaging proposals to, supposedly, speed traffic along the A27 through East and West Sussex, focusing particularly in the Arundel bypass. If anything, the concurrent plans for a northern bypass around Chichester are even more worrying. This will impact on Goodwood and our regular walks out of the city centre to the South Downs around Lavant and The Trundle. 

Rather than, yet again carrying on regardless with the most environmentally damaging scheme, they would be better off improving the existing dual carriageway to the south of the city - for the benefit of everyone, instead of having the road / motoring lobby dictating the agenda at the expense of the environment, open spaces and general public well being.  

Further to my notes last April (A27 Great Divide - my abandoned attempt to walk to Dell Quay from Chichester City Centre), such improvements should at the very least include a footbridge across the dual carriageway for safe pedestrian and cycle access to Chichester Harbour from the city centre.

Speaking as someone who knows the A27-M27 corridor through densely populated south Hampshire, with its increasingly congested, oppressive roads, do the people of Chichester and Sussex really want to aspire to this kind of thing in their area?. Even if it isn't that way when the road is first built, it's bound to get that way after a few years of traffic growth and gap-filling development. The rail network in these areas, meanwhile, is showing signs of creaking at the seams virtually on a daily basis, with regular delays.

I write this shortly after yet another episode of weather: the flooding in northern England and southern Scotland which followed record breaking rainfall totals in some areas (see next entry) during the first week of December. Shortly after this, the UN climate conference in Paris agreed a target to limit the average global  surface temperature rise to 1.5 degrees celcius during the next century. This is a tough target - this year, we're already up to 1C above pre-industrial levels. True coal fired power stations are the big culprits when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions / carbon dioxide. Nonetheless, building more roads, runways (Heathrow III, Gatwick II) is still sending out completely the wrong message of bulldoze on regardless. Then there is the issue of air pollution from motor vehicles, especially diesel. 



Thursday, November 26, 2015

Autumn Notes - London and the South

River Thames, Central London 07/11/15

My sketch on the South Bank last March
The weather forecast had been revised for the better since Friday, the rain in the morning / Friday night clearing by early afternoon. Still uncannily mild 17-18oC in London. A fast ebbing tide beneath Hungerford Bridge as I sat eating my sandwiches, pleasantly surprised to do so in the dry, and minus the chilly Thames wind I’d usually expect at this time of year. The Thames vibe improved as the afternoon went on.

Thames vibe improved with weather. Unlike in the summer, now the huge tourist groups have gone, pleasantly busy instead of oppressive along the South Bank between Hungerford Bridge and Bankside. Children in wellies splashing in puddles. I dread to think what will happen when they start on the Garden Bridge, early next year, carrying on regardless. A piece in the Guardian about the silly, Orwellian restrictions, thirty of them (6th November online). 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/06/garden-bridge-mobile-phone-signals-tracking-london

I haven't seen anyone flying kites from Thames bridges, but essentially, Big Biz will be watching you to make sure your face fits.  Subsequently article about the high cost of it too: 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/nov/14/work-on-london-garden-bridge-to-begin-despite-30m-shortfall-private-money

More than anything else, it's the disruption during the construction along what's already probably the busiest stretch of river in England I dread. The noise, cramming, restricted access, generally very oppressive. What effect will this have on the vibrant South Bank - National Theatre, Royal Festival Hall, bars, eateries etc while it's all going on? As the tide ebbed and people began wandering along the shore, I wondered if I ought to get down there again while I still could. 

Just as we left Bankside, around 3pm, the sky began clearing. The sun broke through. The colours came out along the Thames. Tide now well out, people wandering along the Thames shore, two brass band quartets playing on the more sandy bits beneath the South Bank. November, but al fresco lattes outside the Royal Festival Hall, with low sun on the South Bank architecture. 

Interesting ITV programme about canal trip in SE England, broadcast circa 1st November


Missed when broadcast, but picked up and recorded by my mother. A journey - as much as possible inland in a 60ft narrowboat - from London to the English Channel via the Thames, Wey Navigation, restored / navigable stretches of the Wey and Arun canal and the lower Arun to Littlehampton. As well as visiting places I know well, it came across as a heart warming tale of two older people enjoying life while they still could, in a boat. Timothy West is an experienced canal hand, in his early 80s. Prunella Scales is now 83 and I understand she has dementia but for much of the way she was pretty lucid and agile physically for her age. Scenery wise, there was more in Surrey / along the Wey than West Sussex. They passed through many long loved places I know, particularly along the Wey. They joined the Wey and Arun canal just south Guildford, near Shalford.  Timothy at the tiller, both negotiating the locks. The Wey and Arun Canal is still very patchy, though improved since the 1980s. It’s in water and navigable to narrowboats just south of Shalford, and a short stretch at Loxwood which we visited in 2003. The Wey & Arun Canal Trust are now trying to restore a section a bit further south. A visit to the Yvonne Arnaud Theatre on the Wey at Guildford, a detour from the water to Abinger Hammer, visiting the house where Prunella Scales was born. There was nothing of the Arun above Arundel, so not clear how they got from Loxwood to Arundel. Because of the strong tidal currents, they did the last stretch in a passenger motorboat with a regular skipper. I recognised the boat as the one which does public trips from Arundel quay, just downstream of the bridge in the summer. 

Costing The Earth BBC Radio 4 podcasts - November 2015
  
50 years of coastal change http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06j1xzd

Featured John Whittow who, aided by geography undergrads invariably trudging through mud / getting soaked, mapped the UK coastline for the National Trust in the mid-1960s. Amid the post-war building boom, worries about the coast becoming urbanised through industrial and property development, including , caravan parks. The issue of caravan parks - views vs more affordable holidays controversial, but particularly along prominent, picturesque stretches of SW England, they could perhaps do more to blend them in, paint them green maybe?

They quoted GM Trevelyan, 1930s historian, on open spaces including the coastline: “ultimate injury” through development. “Happiness and the soul’s health is at stake. Without natural beauty people will perish in the spiritual sense. True for all time, developers please take note for the benefit of everyone as far as possible. 

River Quality - focus on River Itchen near Alresford

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06mfs7m

This pretty much confirmed what last year's report from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) on chalk streams said about the Itchen and chalk streams more generally.

The Environment Agency's claims that river quality (in England and Wales, for Scotland it's SEPA) is now the best it has been for the past twenty years seems to be at odds with the experiences of local river-goers, such as the Salmon & Trout UK along the Itchen near Alresford. Chalk streams throughout southern England have suffered diminishing flows during the past 60 years or so through water abstraction (certainly the Kennet and Salisbury Avon). Some encouraging news from  Southern Water about what they have been engineering/ been planning to do around Soton / the lower Itchen to reduce the amount of water taken out of the Itchen and make present levels of abstraction as efficient as possible. They now have plans for a pipeline to divert water from the Test to the Itchen. Southern Water say they would only use it during “droughts as bad as 1976”. There have been at least two other major, prolonged droughts impacting on chalk streams since then (late 1980s- early 1990s), 2011 – early 2012. It also assumes that in such situations the Test would have water to spare, too.

The main emphasis of this programme was on pollution. The situation along the Itchen sounds worse than I'd expect for a prized chalk stream and a protected site. The WWF report says much the same. 

During the past 20-30 years, there have been great strides in tackling the big pollution culprits: industrial pollution and large discharges of raw, untreated sewage. In northern England river water quality has improved dramatically since the 1980s. Most notably the Aire, the Mersey and the Tyne which used to be some of Britain's dirtiest rivers. The River Tyne  is now said to be the best salmon river in England.  The problems now are the cumulative effect of smaller scale sources: particularly of nitrate (N) and phosphate (P) pollution from agricultural run-off, use of fertilisers  and smaller scale but significant discharges of inadequately treated sewage, eg from septic tanks. These nutrients promote the growth of algae, especially when the double whammy of abstraction and drought has diminished the flow. This blocks out much of the light, meaning aquatic plants such as the water crowsfoot which should be abundant in chalk streams like the Itchen, die. The decomposing bacteria then starve the water of oxygen, so nothing can thrive, fish stocks included. They also say silt run-off into the Itchen and its tributaries such as the Alre at Alresford after heavy rain can prevent salmon from spawning.

Salmon & Trout UK said the diversity of plant life in the Itchen had diminished - describing it as more or less a lifeless desert. Though the water still looked clear, it was still more turbid than it should be (due to suspended silt / sediment) and pretty much devoid of plant life. Fish stocks have been declining, too. There should be water crowsfoot – the vivid green weed seen waving gently with the current in healthy chalk streams. Used to see plenty of it all around the Winchester area. They didn’t mention this, but now the dominant plant life in chalk streams and clear running waters seems to be the species with the long, straight spindly weeds. I don’t know the name of that, but there was lots of it in the Stour around Canterbury when I was there last year, and also in the Lavant when that’s running. Both are classed by the WWF as chalk streams, as well as the classic ones such as the Test and Itchen. At Canterbury, I overheard a boat tour commentary saying that kind of weed is down to fertiliser use and impedes navigation. It’s a pain to weed out.

The Great Stour, Canterbury, August 2014
 Research on the Thames at Wallingford by CEH indicates that, though phosphate levels in the Thames and its tributaries has declined by 90% during the past 20 years, algal growth is still rife. I can vouch for that from what I’ve seen along the north branch of the Wey. That is classed as a chalkstream as well, but I’ve never thought it has looked healthy or attractive through Farnham. The only time I’d say not is when the river is running fairly high (as in spring 2008 and last February). Then, it’s invariably turbid because of the increased suspended sediment in the faster current. CEH’s findings suggest that to make a real difference, phosphate levels would have to be reduced further to a third of their present level. Planting more trees along riverbanks to create dappled light rather than the strong relentless sunhine algae like would help, too. It would also give shade to sun sensitive river ramblers.

In 2000, as part of the EU Water Framework Directive, there was a target to improve water quality so that all Britain’s rivers could be classified as Good. Recall the ratings are Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor, Bad. I don’t know the quantitative criteria which decides these but they include nitrate and phosphate levels, biological oxygen demand and presumably biodiversity of aquatic flora and fauna. The target date was this year and we’ve missed them by miles. In England, just 17% of rivers are now classed as Good, 43% in Wales, 50% in Scotland. The government will soon publish new “River Basin Management Plans”, intended to improve thins.

What isn't helping is the Environment Agency's diminishing, strained resources. All things outdoor and environmental have taken a particularly big hit during government spending reviews during the 2010s. This means they unable to do as much as they’d need or like when it comes to monitoring and things which might improve water quality, such as working with farmers and landowners to reduce / better manage agricultural run off and improve sewage treatment.

World Wildlife Fund – State of Britain’s Chalk Streams report, published November 2014
http://www.wwf.org.uk/about_wwf/press_centre/?unewsid=7378

This from John Vidal in The Guardian, 2011
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/aug/30/rivers-spin-environment-agency

Even if EA funding was to improve, the combo of population growth and climate change would put extra pressure on rivers through increase demand for water and greater likelihood of drought. Already we seem to be seeing binary / either full-on-full- off rainfall patterns increasingly regularly. 


The Scouring of the River Lavant

 22nd November – on our way up to the Trundle, South Downs near Chichester, on Sunday morning, we saw that, not only was the stream still dry, but it also now more closely resembled a flood relief channel or reservoir outlet than a rural downland chalk stream. Last week (18th November), I’d seen people working here, including a guy in orange hi-vis standing in the streambed. I could tell from the far side of the village green, then it was still dry. They had a digger, though I thought it was all heavy duty gardening, clearing leaves and cutting back trees, rather the stream itself. Through East Lavant, the channel and banks are now completely scoured of anything natural, beyond autumn leaves which have fallen during the past few days.
  
As noted previously, this is a winterbourne. The water table in the chalk is obviously too low for it to run at the moment. Given what I’ve said elsewhere about autumnal drought, I’m not surprised if recharge is a bit late last year. Hopefully rain during November help. 


Recent features in The Guardian  etc on Rivers / Water / Weather – UK

Why are river names so repetitive? 
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/jul/22/why-river-names-repetitive-avon-don-derwent


Grim Long Read about drought and other pressures on Britain’s rivers, focusing on the Sussex Ouse
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/08/are-we-killing-our-rivers

WWF claim UK government failing to protect rivers from farm pollution
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/27/government-accused-of-failing-to-protect-waterways-from-farm-pollution

Britain 'must abandon Churchillian rhetoric' in face of rising seas
http://gu.com/p/4e59v?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Drive

River Wey, Woodbridge Meadow Guildford



Revisited 20th November, en route to the Farnham area. Woodbridge Meadow is to the north of  the town centre and Dapdune Wharf. In recent years, the area has seen a makeover by local tree sculptors. Now a giant buried in the grass, two feet and a hand sticking in the air. Nearer the road, a nose and lips. A couple of troll-like face carvings in growing trees. Recently, too, the adding of a flinty structure with seating and wooden seed sculptures. These are some of my photos.



Figures sillouetted in shadows under railway bridge


Autumn notes from the Severn and Wye

10th - 17th October 2015 - a week in the Wye Valley area near Monmouth. Long time favourite landmarks along the Wye - Symonds Yat and the valley between Tintern and Llandogo revisited. We also went walking in the Brecon Beacons / Black Mountains - the Llanthony Priory area and Pen y Fan. We were very lucky to have settled weather, though after so much brightness on the south coast in September, the cloudier weather and shortening days hit me for the first time this year. My sketches from the week will be on my Water and Art blog shortly. The autumn colours - particularly strong this year - were just beginning, adding colour to the cloudier, mistier days, especially on our first day, at Symonds Yat. 



We also visited family in the area. En route to one lot on the Thursday, we stopped at Upton-on-Severn. The Map Shop there has most extensive stock of any map shop outside London (Stanfords). Strolling along the Severn afterwards, we chanced upon a Severn swimmer, accompanied by a few paddle boarders, and a barge laden with bicycles, packs and camping gear bringing up the rear. A tall man with a big dog came across the meadow to the river bank and told us all about it: the swimmer was Kev Brady, swimming the 220 mile length of the Severn source-to-sea, in aid of the Superheroes Foundation. This is the charity he co-founded in Gloucester to raise money to enable children to have treatment abroad which is not available in the UK. Previously, he has canoed solo along the Mississippi River, during the intensely cold winter hitting much of the US 2013 /14.

Link to Kev Brady's Facebook page and blogs from his journey:
https://www.facebook.com/kevbradyadventures/?fref=ts

He started the challenge on 23rd September, at the Source of the Severn, on Plynlimon in the Welsh hills. Strictly the first bit, as far as Welshpool (day 4), was brisk walking, the Severn here being just a fledgling river, not deep enough for swimming. He finished at Severn Beach a month later, in the evening darkness on 23rd October, after passing under the two Severn motorway crossings. By the end he'd raised £18,000 for his charity, smashing his targets which had been progressively revised upwards as the swim progressed. Along the way he had endured bitterly cold water and "river belly", most severely just before he got to Upton. There were concerns too, from the Severn Area Rescue Service and others as to how he'd fare in the Severn estuary, especially the most dangerous stretch, The Noose above Sharpness. I've seen for myself how strong the tidal currents are there. This is why no one had attempted to swim the entire length of the river, with the estuary until now. Thankfully, he hit the estuary during a period of neap tides which would have been moderate. Even so, he had to time his swims carefully according to the tides, so not be dragged back upstream. This was why he had to swim in the dark towards the end. 

For most of the way, however, lack of current was more of a problem than too much of a good flow. According to the Environment Agency and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, the flow along the Severn, was Exceptionally Low - red dots on the River Flow maps in their monthly hydrological reports for the UK / England for October. At Bewdley, the mean monthly flow was just under a quarter of the longterm average for October in a record going back to 1921. The Wye (Redbrook) was little better at 29%. The flows subsequently recovered, at least in the short term with rainfall during the first half of November, but I wasn't surprised. Both rivers looked low when we'd seen them. At Tintern (16th October) there were the usual strong tidal currents along the Wye. We'd caught the tide on the turn while we were looking around Stella Books whose shop window looks out onto the Wye at Tintern Parva, views towards the Abbey. Further upriver at Brockweir, another ominous Careful-Where-You-Park sign. The tide was now ebbing and still running fast at the bridge here, but above it towards Llandogo on the opposite bank, it was barely noticeable. When I'd been here in 2004, when the fluvial (pluvial) flow coming downstream was much higher and healthier, the currents here had been very strong. Now it was very languid, the water looking dark, almost inky black in places, the shortening autumn days particularly noticeable in incised valleys such as this one. 

Letterpressing at Red Hot Press - done with the Severn especially in mind, at the end of October
The prevailing weather during our week away had been dry "courtesy" of a blocking anticyclone stretching all across northern Europe. The jet stream was splitting in two, with the northern track to the north of the British Isles, and a southern one bringing storms and flash flooding to the normally drier Mediterranean area. During summer autumn the jet stream has moved around. Rainfall around the UK during the summer and autumn has been geographically variable, the south apparently doing better than the Severn basin which according to the EA / rainfall data from the Met. Office, has had below average rainfall for the past twelve months. The predominant weather over the UK and NW Europe has been very very mild. Though we didn't have quite Halloween heatwave we'd had last year, highs in London were still exceeding 15C in London through to the middle of November. In France, the highs were in the low 20s celcius, worthy of September, according to Meteo France. It went on like this until the weather pattern shifted temporarily, allowing cold air to plunge down from the north, bringing an Offensive Hivernale, as Meteo France called it. Here a strong, biting north wind on Saturday 21st November. Even that, though was shortlived, with milder weather returning again during the middle of the following week. 

Early, warm, usually dry springs and certainly warm, late invariably dry autumns seem to have become more and more the norm during about the past twenty years. I blame global warming, or rather global heating as I prefer to call it. Global warming sounds too cushy in view of the potentially far reaching impacts global, human induced climate change will / is already having on weather patterns / rainfall, increasing incidence of extreme weather, including flood and drought. Taken together with the projected UK population increase of nearly 10 million in the next 25 years (Office of National Statistics, 29th October) and water demand rising accordingly, the prospects for our rivers is worrying. The Severn is a source of public water supply and already has to be augmented artificially in its middle reaches from groundwater and reservoir discharges during the summer. 

The low water levels on the Severn reminded me of another notably dry autumn, in 2003. Then, the Severn reached its lowest October flow at Bewdley since 1947. This year's has probably come close, too. 2003 was also notable for the European heatwave in the summer, with thousands dying in France in August. The UK got off relatively lightly but a serious hydrological deficit built from February onwards. Around the time I saw the low levels along the Severn at Bewdley (October), I had a postcard from folk holidaying in Germany - The Rhine is very low, our cruise is not possible. They told me there had been a riot on board when the holiday reps aboard broke the news. Well, it's happened again. I was shocked to read (The Guardian online app 12th November) that the Rhine has again been running very low, even lower than in 2003 and possibly 1976. Reveling in the Loire ("Severn's Big Sister", as I've noticed quite a few parallels) running so abundantly in May, I switched off to weather news from Europe over the summer, not wanting a flow-by-flow account of falling water levels. As summer in the UK was not unrelentingly hot and dry (August wet again), too, I was more surprised this year. However, on all the weather charts I've seen, the track of the north Atlantic low pressures (guided by the jet stream) has been missing much of continental Europe. Invariably, too, there have been anticyclones in the area which would prevent convectively generated rainfall (ie thunderstorms). It was much hotter there in continental Europe during the summer, and for longer (highs at or near 40C in Paris in north central France in early July).  The bad news is that this kind of drought is in line with climate change predictions for northern and central Europe. Rivers like the Rhine, running off the Alps, owe much of their flow to the melting winter snow pack and glaciers. Both of which are diminishing. 

Links

Environment Agency - Monthly and Weekly reports on water resources, including river flows, in 

River and Sea Levels - http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels/

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Monthly Hydrological Summaries
http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/monthly-hydrological-summary-uk

Flood Warnings
http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

Met. Office
Met. Office News
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news

Met Office News blog, with rainfall data

Weather and Water Links - France / Europe

Guardian - 12/11/15 - Shrinking Rhine: shipping scrapes by as river stays at lowest level for 40 years

Guardian - 27/08/15 - European ‘extreme weather belt’ linked to worst drought since 2003

European Weather warnings (though seemingly not drought
http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

Deutscher Wetterdienst – German Met. Office

Propluvia – map of water restrictions in France by Department

Météo France weather forecasts

Météo France – Vigilance Métérologique (weather warnings)

France - Vigicrues (flood alerts)
http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr/